Kirsty Hughes is director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations.
EDINBURGH — On Sunday, former European Council President Donald Tusk said Brussels would surely be full of empathy and enthusiasm if an independent Scotland wanted to rejoin the European Union. Certainly, Brexit has shifted EU attitudes toward a potentially independent Scotland in the bloc compared to 2014 when the first independence referendum was held.
But are politicians and officials in Brussels truly ready to go down that path? Given the likely fractious and difficult upcoming talks with the U.K. about its future relationship with the bloc, it’s fair to say they have enough on their plates already, without considering whether and when the U.K. might fracture as a union (or interfering in a third country’s constitutional debate).
And yet, the EU can’t entirely afford to wait and see if Scotland chooses independence. Although the EU accession process is clear in theory, things tend to shake out differently in practice. Every candidate is different and, as France has recently shown by blocking the accession of Albania and North Macedonia, politics can intrude and things can get messy.
Although U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted he will not endorse a second independence referendum, a political shift in the Scottish parliament election in May next year could, just perhaps, pave the way for another independence referendum in 2022. In the case of a “yes” vote, the EU would need to get its thinking cap on fast, even while U.K.-Scotland divorce talks took place.
One big question for the EU would be the impact of Scottish independence on any U.K.-EU deal that had been struck, not least on access to fishing waters. The EU, Scotland and the U.K. would surely need to agree on day one of Scottish independence on the status of fisheries and other key areas. However informal, there would need to be prior talks.
Scotland could face trade barriers going up in all directions on its first day of independence.
A related question concerns Scotland’s transition from leaving the U.K. to rejoining the EU. If Scotland’s application to rejoin came as early as 2024, and Scotland hadn’t diverged much from the EU’s acquis, those talks might be relatively swift. An EU-Scotland association agreement might be the right, and usual, frame for transition, if put together quickly.
But what would happen ahead of having any interim association agreement? Might Scotland effectively stay part of the future U.K.-EU trade deal, if there is one? Otherwise, Scotland could face trade barriers going up in all directions on its first day of independence — the opposite of a supportive European welcome.
The EU would also need to consider what sort of transitional support it might offer Scotland — a country newly independent for the first time in over 300 years. Scotland has almost half a century’s experience of being in the EU as a mature democracy and market economy. But it would also take time to get all its new state functions up and running.
There would also be the question of currency — a big bone of contention in the independence debate. The Scottish National Party’s current policy is to go for “sterlingization” for the first years after independence before establishing a new Scottish currency (and then in principle, once a member state, the euro).
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, delivers a speech outlining her plans regarding Scottish independence | Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images
This would be a new one for the Commission — a candidate using the currency of a third country (without the U.K.’s permission) and so not in a position to show it had full control of its monetary policy levers. Would there be some political solution found, or would Scotland have to wait until it could prove it had a stable monetary policy environment with its own currency?
Given the U.K.’s direction of travel under Johnson, there is also the highly sensitive issue of potential customs and regulatory checks between Scotland and England and Wales (though not Northern Ireland) — an independent Scotland within the EU would mean an EU external border running between England and Scotland.
How far Scotland’s laws will have diverged from the EU by the time it applied to rejoin is another open question. What would Scotland’s debt and deficit position look like, and how long might it take to adjust to EU goals?
On one issue at least, there is the potential to forge common ground: Scotland’s environment and climate policies.
POTENTIAL SCOTLAND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM POLL OF POLLS
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
The Scottish government has said it wants to remain aligned to EU laws on environment (a devolved competence) as far as possible — subject to any post-Brexit power grab that might come from Westminster.
With the European Green Deal at the center of the new European Commission’s work program, and the vital COP26 summit in Glasgow in November, Scotland’s mostly progressive climate policies — including the goal to reduce emissions by 75 percent by 2030 — could help smooth the path to eventual membership by aligning with EU goals on a key issue.
The U.K. may have left the EU, but discussions in Scotland are already well under way on the potential path to returning to the fold. Brussels can and will stand back from that debate — but it would do well to keep a keen eye on it.