Jarosław Kaczyński’s grip on power slips in Poland

WARSAW — In the little more than a year that Poland’s Law and Justice party has been in power, it has introduced a series of dramatic and controversial changes to the country’s core institutions. From the educational and health care systems to the military, the constitutional court and the media — it sometimes seems that no sector of Polish society remains untouched.

It’s tempting to conclude that the party’s leader Jarosław Kaczyński has successfully seized dictatorial powers, ruling from the shadows in all but name. Instead, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he may have overreached. For evidence of that, look not to the thousands of protesters massing outside the gates of parliament (or Sejm); look to what’s happening indoors — where cracks in Kaczyński’s slim majority are beginning to appear.

Even before opposition MPs sparked an all-out confrontation by occupying the main chamber of parliament, there were signs that Kaczyński was losing control of the legislative process. Law and Justice (PiS) has 234 parliamentarians, just 4 more than the 230 it needs to rule. And last week, it lost three voting sessions on relatively minor issues, including a commemoration of an early 20th-century military commander and technical detail in an education reform distinguishing between autism and Asperger syndrome.

It was the first time the party has broken ranks, and it seems to have put its leadership on alert.

Thirteen months of controversy

Since sweeping to power in 2015, PiS has replaced the officials in charge of the state media, given untenable cash subsidies for families with more than one child, refused to swear-in justices who had been vetted and approved by the previous session of parliament, and disregarded the country’s constitutional court when it ruled against them.

These moves have garnered condemnation abroad and sparked protests in Poland, where outrage has recently reached fever pitch. A controversial reform of the education system was greeted with howls of disapproval from parents and educators when parliament approved it on December 14. And demonstrations against a bill that would have banned abortion in all cases except to save the woman’s life forced the government to back down.

The protests in the Sejm have taken the confrontation to another level. The crisis began on Friday afternoon after the Speaker of the Sejm, Marek Kuchciński, banned opposition MP Michał Szczerba from the ongoing budget session.

The vote on the budget was then taken in a closed session, with opposition MPs prevented from taking part — in violation of internal Sejm procedures.

Szczerba, who was about to give his comments on the budget, was one of the MPs protesting regulations limiting access to parliament by journalists that had gone into effect earlier in the day. After briefly displaying a piece of paper with the hashtag #WolneMedia (Free Media), he was expelled from the session. This triggered a reaction from opposition MPs, who blocked the podium demanding his reinstatement.

After consulting senior MPs from all sides, Kuchciński was reportedly ready to allow Szczerba to speak, until Kaczyński convinced him to hold his ground. Instead, he stuck by his decision, and opposition MPs continued to occupy the main chamber while the ruling party’s MPs moved to an adjacent room.

The vote on the budget was then taken in a closed session, with opposition MPs prevented from taking part — in violation of internal Sejm procedures. Some opposition MPs used their smartphones to live-broadcast as parliamentary guards acting on direct orders from the speaker prevented them from entering the room where the voting was taking place.

Meanwhile, by a crowd of protesters numbering in the thousands gathered outside the Sejm to protest the misconduct, blocking the exits as the government and the PiS MPs tried to leave. Eventually, the police intervened, forcibly removing protestors. Opposition MPs stayed in the main chamber overnight, taking shifts in an unprecedented sit-in.

What may happen

The outcome of the showdown could determine Poland’s future. Support for the party was 35 percent in December, according to a poll by Kantar Public.

And it could drop further as Poland undergoes a serious economic downturn. Investments and GDP growth are slowing down, falling below already low expectations. The images of protestors on the street and government officials forced to flee parliament will only add to the image of dwindling power and popularity.

In the wake of the crisis, Polish President Andrzej Duda has been talking to political leaders from across the spectrum in an effort at meditation. Yet it is the fights over media access to the parliament and the furtive budget vote that will make all the difference. The opposition has called for a second vote on the budget — one held in the main chamber with all parties participating. If the budget is not accepted by December 25, the president would be allowed to shorten the term of parliament, causing the government to fall.

While such an eventually is unlikely, the showdown provides an opportunity for Duda, who has until now held a marginal role in Polish politics, to strengthen his position in relation to Kaczyński and the government. Should he seize it, he could redraw the country’s power dynamics, bringing Kaczyński’s blitzkrieg of legislation into the Polish winter mud.

Wojciech Przybylski is editor-in-chief Visegrad Insight and chairman of the Res Publica foundation in Warsaw.