Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice and the author of POLITICO‘s Beyond the Bubble column.
LONDON — For 10 days, Downing Street played down fears about Boris Johnson’s health after he tested positive for the coronavirus.
Both the British prime minister and his officials insisted his symptoms were mild, and that he was still in charge from his bed — talking to his team and keeping up with his red boxes.
Today, with Johnson now in intensive care, downplaying the gravity of his condition is no longer an option. As much as ministers might try to send a “business as usual” message, it’s important to be clear: This situation is nothing of the sort.
The government’s response to the crisis was already hampered by the temporary loss of several ministers and key aides waylaid by the virus and the need to work remotely.
Now it has, for a while at least, lost its figurehead — an irrepressibly optimistic leader who repeatedly told the public the U.K. would “beat” the disease. Johnson’s worsening condition could damage public morale, although ministers hold out hope it will help persuade people not to flout the lockdown rules.
Johnson’s absence could also lead to a “blame game” ahead of the inevitable inquiry when the crisis is over.
It is never easy for a prime minister to “let go.” In the macho world of politics, leaders tend to see any admission of an illness as an admission of weakness. Now that he has no choice, Johnson’s de facto deputy, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has moved to center stage and will have to chair and govern with the consent of the entire Cabinet.
Raab is a surprise choice to act as a stand-in. When Johnson last year picked him as first secretary of state over Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove, the choice seemed unorthodox. Ultimately MPs believe Johnson has not fully forgiven Gove for “knifing him in the front” during the party’s 2016 leadership contest, when he deserted Johnson’s campaign and ran himself.
Raab is not a good speaker; or at least the two afternoon Downing Street press conferences he has led so far have not inspired confidence. Critics also say he lacks the empathy needed in such a crisis, and his record on repatriating Britons stranded around the world has been called into question by MPs.
Of course, the prime minister will not be entirely out of the picture; his views can be represented by his aides, and relayed to the Cabinet by Mark Sedwill, the Cabinet secretary.
If Raab flexes his new muscles too much, he risks pushback from senior ministers who could, in theory, depose him and choose a replacement — though that is highly unlikely, as it would advertise Cabinet divisions. Not to mention it would be a disastrous look during a national emergency.
It’s understandable that ministers have sought to play down the impact of Johnson’s absence by arguing that their immediate task is to implement decisions that have already been taken, such as increasing testing for the virus and ensuring there are enough ventilators in hospitals and personal protective equipment for health workers.
But big decisions loom. The restrictions currently in place are due to be reviewed next Monday, three weeks after they were first introduced. This could be a problem, as there are growing signs of tensions in Cabinet over the exit strategy from the lockdown.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak — reflecting the Treasury’s anxiety about the deep damage a prolonged shutdown would inflict on the economy — is pressing for as quick a phased return to normality as possible. But Health Secretary Matt Hancock is worried that even talking about relaxation could encourage the public to think they can ignore the rules on social distancing and worsen the immediate crisis engulfing the NHS.
These decisions will be a severe test of the Cabinet’s mettle and discipline. The differing views among its key players is bound to raise fears that Johnson’s enforced absence will leave the government rudderless at a critical time.
Johnson’s absence could also lead to a “blame game” ahead of the inevitable inquiry when the crisis is over. Some ministers and their political aides will no doubt be tempted to point a finger at mistakes allegedly made by senior civil servants and bodies such as Public Health England and NHS England in an attempt to distract from their own role in the crisis.
Johnson will want to be at the forefront of this crunch debate, and to calm the developing Cabinet tensions over it. But for now at least, that seems unlikely.
“He always wants to lead from the front,” one ally said, “but will now have to accept he must delegate decisions to others.” We’ll soon find out whether Raab and the Cabinet live up to the test.