Zselyke Csaky is research director for Europe and Eurasia at Freedom House.
Poland’s presidential election on Sunday will be pivotal for the country’s democracy. But it will also have Europe-wide implications.
The choice between the incumbent, Andrzej Duda, and his challenger, Rafał Trzaskowski, is a choice between increasingly entrenched authoritarianism and a return to openness, tolerance and democratic legitimacy.
On one side is a profoundly anti-democratic bloc represented by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and its ally in the president’s office, Duda. Over the past five years, the two have overseen a worsening of Poland’s political polarization, an unprecedented attack on the country’s judiciary and smear campaigns against government critics, the media and civil society.
Duda has been instrumental in PiS’s capture of Poland’s independent institutions, countersigning several problematic or unconstitutional laws establishing political control over the judiciary.
A victory for Trzaskowski would be an opportunity to break up the anti-democratic bloc formed by PiS and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.
As a result, Poland’s constitutional tribunal increasingly works as a rubber stamp for the ruling majority. And the country’s judicial system has become politicized, with rewards and appointments for government-friendly judges and punishments for those whose rulings or public stances PiS doesn’t like.
If these “reforms” are allowed to continue, Poland will turn into a country where the government acts as the final arbiter of guilt and innocence.
Then, PiS will no doubt move toward full institutional capture. The justice minister has already indicated it has the media in his sights. The government could also rev up a culture war. In a move reminiscent of Russia’s “gay propaganda” law, Duda has already announced a family charter that would ban adoption by same-sex couples and prohibit the propagation of “LGBT ideology.”
The other option at the ballot box is Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, whose messages of hope and change have resonated strongly with the electorate. He and Duda are facing off in the second round of the election Sunday, and the result is likely to be a close one.
Trzaskowski is a late entrant to the race, joining in mid-May after the election was postponed because of the coronavirus crisis — but he was able to collect 1.6 million signatures, 16 times the required number, in just a week.
He represents a different Poland from PiS’s, and his victory would give the opposition the institutional leverage it needs to stop the country’s democratic deterioration.
The Senate, where the opposition has had a slim majority since late last year, has already slowed down the government’s legislative assault. But Trzaskowski, if elected, would have the power to effectively veto legislation. This could put PiS on the back foot, preempting any further unconstitutional overhauls of the system.
That would change Poland’s trajectory, not just domestically, but inside the European Union.
In addition to reinstating the rule of law within Poland, a victory for Trzaskowski would be an opportunity to break up the anti-democratic bloc formed by PiS and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.
Rule of law problems exist in many EU countries, including in Malta, Bulgaria and Romania. But PiS and Fidesz are not just power-hungry — they are authoritarian, consciously working toward disassembling democracy and establishing one-party rule. At the European level, they have also worked together to block attempts at sanctions, each ensuring the other can continue to dismantle obstacles to authoritarianism with full impunity.
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
If the opposition, led by Trzaskowski, is able to regain some control in Warsaw, Poland will have a chance at saving its democracy and Hungary will be left on its own, without a strong defender.
This could give EU member countries — and the German presidency — an opening to gather political courage, stand up to the authoritarian agenda and reestablish the primacy of rule of law inside the EU.
And that, in turn, could give democrats in Warsaw the space and support they need to undo the damage caused by five years under PiS.