Franak Viačorka is a journalist and analyst based in Minsk. He is a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council and vice president of DigiComNet.
MINSK — For years, there was an unspoken contract between the Belarusian regime and its growing IT sector: We do not touch you, and you do not meddle in politics.
That tacit agreement appears to have fallen apart. In what could be a huge blow for the country and its future, major companies including EPAM, Yandex and Wargaming are starting to move staff or headquarters out of the country in response to the political upheaval that followed the August 9 presidential election.
Belarus is one of the largest technology centers in Eastern Europe and a major source of pride for embattled Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. In September, he declared of the IT sector: “I created it from scratch in Belarus, and I know it well.” He has repeatedly pointed to High-Tech Park — the country’s equivalent of Silicon Valley, with a tax and legal regime favorable to IT companies — as an example of Belarus’ successful efforts to modernize its economy.
But what was a neutral relationship between the Lukashenko regime and the IT sector shifted this year, amid the presidential election campaign, as IT companies became a powerful driving force in pro-democracy efforts.
In the immediate aftermath of the election … some 300 CEOs of IT companies based in Belarus threatened to move their business out of the country.
The first obvious sign of a major shift was the decision of Valery Tsepkalo — one of the founders of High-Tech Park — to run against Lukashenko in the presidential race. He fled Belarus for Poland and faces several years in prison if he returns.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, as authorities resorted to brutal measures to repress protesters, some 300 CEOs of IT companies based in Belarus threatened to move their business out of the country unless the government put a stop to the violence and allowed for new elections to be held. The list included CEOs known to be reliably loyal to the regime in the past, such as Arkady Dobkin, the owner of EPAM, and Viktor Prokopenya, the founder of software development company Viaden Media.
Instead of supporting Lukashenko, many High-Tech Park leaders and residents joined rallies in support of opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who has emerged as the figurehead of the protest movement calling for new elections. Pavel Liber, a senior figure of EPAM, even came out as one of the developers of an alternate vote-counting platform that showed Lukashenko did not receive 80 percent of votes (although the platform could not prove a conclusive victory for Tikhanovskaya). EPAM’s senior vice president, Makism Bahretsou, went on leave from the company to join the National Coordination Council, an opposition structure created to facilitate a peaceful transfer of power. Other IT sector employees were active donors of public funds for victims of police violence and striking workers.
As the post-election crackdown continues, a number of companies are now seriously discussing relocating offices and employees, citing internet disruption and safety as key factors. (Since the election, authorities have periodically shut off internet access in an attempt to control protests). The Minsk office of Yandex, an internet services firm, was searched on August 25, prompting some employees to be relocated. Viber announced shortly thereafter that it had decided to “immediately close” its office in Minsk and asked people to work remotely. The company later tweeted that the office had reopened.
In an interview with Forbes, Viber CEO Djamel Agaoua said two Viber engineers had been arrested during protests “for no reason” and beaten. He warned that the ongoing violence could halt his company’s plans to further invest in the country, saying: “We cannot invest in a country where people live in fear.”
The fear, it seems, is spreading. Godel, a British IT company with an office in Belarus, said it had sent part of its team to Ukraine in light of the volatile situation. At PandaDoc, a document automation software company, a survey of employees found that 83 percent want to leave the country soon.
No one knows how long the protests will last. But it’s evident that if Lukashenko stays, the government can expect pushback from its lucrative IT sector, which is likely to decamp elsewhere — most likely to Ukraine or Poland — leaving Belarus to suffer the effects of brain-drain, crippling entire industries and raising the risk of a long-term economic crisis.
According to the news outlet dev.by, 12 Belarusian IT companies are already in the process of relocating their entire operations to another country; some 59 companies have moved part of their staff out of Belarus, and another 112 companies have started looking at options to relocate.
For foreign investors, Belarus will turn from an oasis of opportunities into a no-go zone too dangerous to invest in. The industry that was supposed to lead Belarus into the future will be the first and most prominent victim of Lukashenko’s desperate attempt to cling on to power.