Linas Linkevičius is Lithuanian minister of foreign affairs.
VILNIUS — The crisis in Belarus goes far beyond the violent aftermath of its presidential election in August.
For decades, under Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorship, the country has witnessed successive waves of repression. With an opposition too weak and divided to overcome to the regime, Lukashenko has had free reign to exert massive control on Belarusian society, while flirting with both Russia and the West.
And for decades, the European Union has been extremely patient, taking the smallest change in Belarus for a sign of progress.
It’s clear now, however, that we’ve reached a tipping point. If the EU wants to be a powerful player on the world stage and in its immediate Eastern neighborhood, it urgently needs a new approach to the region, and to Belarus in particular. Words of condemnation and regret, and the other usual buzzwords, are no longer enough.
Lukashenko has turned to Russia for military support — proof that his claims of pressure from Moscow were nothing more than a farce.
In recent years, we saw some positive shifts in Belarus’ foreign policy. Dialogue with the EU became more constructive and relations with the U.S. have been restored. On my last visit to Belarus, Vladimir Makei, the country’s foreign minister, made a speech in Belarusian at a public event — something that would have been unimaginable only a few years ago.
Belarus’ ossified power structure, however, failed to recognize these important signs of liberalization and reawakening. The Belarusian people’s reaction to the August election showed their patience has come to an end.
It has also become clear that Lukashenko has never been interested in modernizing the country, or in real independence for Belarus: All he wants is to stay in power.
Now, scared that the protests against his dictatorship will spread across the whole country, Lukashenko has turned to Russia for military support — proof that his claims of pressure from Moscow were nothing more than a farce designed to portray him as a necessary guardian of Belarusian independence.
The events in Belarus have become a great headache for Russia’s leadership, with the Kremlin weighing up tolerating the peaceful protests and the possibility of new elections versus supporting Lukashenko’s leadership and sending military support.
Moscow is wavering, it seems, because it is afraid of uncontrollable democratic processes. In the Kremlin’s eyes, were Lukashenko to submit to the will of the nation, it would be a show of weakness that could send the wrong signal to Russian civic society inspired by the Belarus protests.
So far, Russia has chosen to verbally attack advocates of dialogue in Belarus and parroted Lukashenko’s narrative of foreign (read Western) interference in Belarus. It is lecturing the EU about “proper” etiquette in foreign policy, even as it resorts to the “best practices” of the KGB. With the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, it is seeking to send a message to what remains of Russia’s civic society: “Do not dare to protest.”
Accusations that Western democracies are trying to interfere with the sovereignty and integrity of Belarus, or to influence the country’s opposition, are baseless.
Lithuania provided asylum to Svetlana Tikhanovskayą because she was clearly in danger, as are countless other opposition figures. What Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin call the West’s intrusion, we see as simply calling a spade a spade.
The EU rightly has not hesitated to declare that the elections in Belarus were unfair, undemocratic and unfree; that brutal violence against peaceful people is a breach of human rights; and that only new leadership will help Belarus get out of a political and moral deadlock.
But words aren’t enough. The situation in Belarus is a test of our European values and commitment to human rights. Will we let repression and violence win? Will we let an unelected president summon Russia to “solve the problem” of peaceful citizens asking for free and fair elections?
Lukashenko gestures during a rally held to support him in central Minsk | Siarhei Leskiec/AFP via Getty Images
As long as the EU and the rest of the Western world are hesitant and divided — and keep trying to reset relations with Moscow — Russia can pretend to be a superpower while openly ignoring international rules and stoking conflict.
The EU has to be crisp, clear and united in its response. It has to be definitive in stating that, since August 9, Lukashenko is a former president of Belarus and that his actions are unlawful and intolerable in Europe.
These words have to followed by deeds. Targeted EU sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime is only a first step. We must lend assistance to victims of violence and repressions, ensure all political detainees are released and launch an international investigation of possible crimes against humanity. Belarus’ civic society and independent media are also in desperate need of our support.
The EU must send a very clear signal to the Kremlin that any attempt to interfere in Belarus’ affairs will have a long-term impact on Russia. And the EU should not hesitate to take serious action should the Kremlin choose to interfere.
If we fail to pass this important test, it will deal a serious blow to our very foundations. It is not too late to make sure that does not happen.