Askold Krushelnycky is a Ukrainian freelance journalist based in Washington, D.C.
WASHINGTON — Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has thought of America as its best — and most valuable — friend on the international stage.
That relationship became even more vital in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and stoked a conflict that continues to take a bloody toll in eastern Ukraine.
But rather than seeing the U.S. as a source of support, Ukrainians are now eyeing Washington with dread and worry that a victory for Donald Trump in November’s presidential election could send a signal to Russia — which, according to U.S. National Intelligence reports, is actively trying to get Trump reelected — that it can increase its aggression against Ukraine.
Trump’s first four years have been an uncomfortable ride for Ukraine, which found itself, more than once, thrust into the spotlight of U.S. political debate, including as part of an impeachment inquiry into Trump. The U.S. president has called Ukrainians “horrible people” and pushed for Russia to be allowed back into the G7 + 1 club of the world’s biggest economies from which it was expelled over its invasion of Crimea.
U.S. Democratic candidate Joe Biden has promised to increase assistance to Ukraine, including access to lethal weapons.
As a result, Ukrainians have cooled on relations with the U.S., according to Ukrainian journalist Vitaliy Sych, the editor of Novoye Vremya.
“Many people feel that, before Trump became president, the United States was the best diplomatic, political and military ally of Ukraine — the ally that we really needed in fighting Russia and helping us against Russian aggression,” said Sych. “We have lost much of that feeling during Trump’s presidency.”
Ukrainians know that “Trump is not America” and that there is still strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress, Sych added. But they perceive that he isn’t as concerned about the fate of Ukraine in the way previous presidents were — and that, as long as he is sitting in the Oval Office, he will make their lives more difficult.
“My impression is Trump developed an emotional trauma about Ukraine, which has led to a Pavlov’s dog reaction where he views Ukraine negatively, shies away from Ukrainian issues, tries to forget about the country,” said Sych.
It’s Trump’s “inexplicable empathy for Russia” and his willingness to close his eyes to Putin’s “crimes and wrongdoings” that make Trump so dangerous for Ukraine, he added.
U.S. Democratic candidate Joe Biden, meanwhile, has promised to increase assistance to Ukraine, including access to lethal weapons.
“From what I can tell, most Ukrainians are holding their breath and hoping that Biden wins,” said Brian Bonner, the veteran editor of the Kyiv Post. “Biden knows Ukraine quite well and was here as vice president six or seven times … [as part of] the Obama administration.”
Ukrainians hope they’ll benefit from Biden’s previous experience in Ukraine and his understanding that “defeating Russia also means defeating corruption in Ukraine,” according to Bonner.
Rather than widespread support for Biden, it might be more accurate to say that a majority in Ukraine are actively worried about Trump’s policies, said Volodymyr Fesenko, who heads the political consultancy company, Penta and previously advised the governments of former Presidents Petro Poroshenko and Viktor Yuschenko.
“They fear him because he doesn’t adequately understand Ukraine and his statements on Ukraine seem negative,” said Fesenko, referring to Trump. “People are concerned by his efforts to build a close relationship with Putin.”
As the date nears and tensions rise, most Ukrainian politicians and officials are unwilling to talk about the U.S. election openly for fear that Trump associates like former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will try to drag them into another “Ukraine interference” scandal.
A victory for Biden, Ukrainians argue, would bring back a sense of normality to relations that have become increasingly unpredictable over the past four years.
Privately, though, Ukrainian diplomats, intelligence and military officials have discussed the possibility that if Putin sees Trump lose in November, he might unleash his forces to snatch more Ukrainian territory in the period before Biden is sworn in.
After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, Ukraine cut off water supplies to the peninsula, which has few sources of its own. Crimea is now becoming increasingly parched and Putin could, under the pretext of a “humanitarian mission,” launch an invasion to take a huge swathe of Ukrainian mainland territory that contains a water supply.
Ukrainian experts have warned that huge Russian military exercises that started this month close to Ukraine’s southeastern border could provide cover for repositioning men and equipment in preparation for an attack on Ukraine in concert with Russia’s formidable military forces already in Crimea.
A victory for Biden, Ukrainians argue, would bring back a sense of normality to relations that have become increasingly unpredictable over the past four years. If Trump is reelected, the feeling is, anything could happen.