Shada Islam is a Brussels-based commentator on EU affairs. She runs New Horizons project, a strategy, analysis and advisory company.
Hard as it may be for Brussels to admit, Donald Trump has been good for Europe.
Sure, the U.S. president took a sledgehammer to transatlantic relations, rooted for Brexit and denounced the European Union as America’s almost-number-one enemy.
But he also forced the EU to stop over-relying on America and to act with more confidence on the world stage.
If most European leaders now desperately want a new man in the White House — someone who can bring sanity and dignity to the Oval Office and U.S. policies — working with Joe Biden won’t fix what’s ailing the relationship overnight.
The notion of a return to the transatlantic glory days is certainly compelling: no more anti-EU rants and offensive tweets; no more watching U.S. ambassadors in Europe dallying with populists and non-democrats.
By contrast, the Democratic challenger and former vice president has promised to renew U.S. democracy and alliances, tackle global challenges and once again provide global American leadership.
And yet, there are still plenty of potential pitfalls that could come with a Biden presidency.
Specifically, as the two estranged allies kiss and make up, there’s the risk that the U.S. could put a spanner in the EU’s future growth — whether consciously or not — unless its policies actively encourage, rather than stymie, Europe’s global ambitions.
Instead, Washington must realize that Europe is serious about no longer being America’s junior partner. With the U.S. absent, Europeans have been learning the hard way to stand — at least partially — on their own two feet.
To be sure, those efforts have not fully come to fruition. Valiant efforts at EU-wide defense cooperation notwithstanding, Europe’s security is still guaranteed by NATO and the U.S.
Criticism of the bloc’s efforts at “open strategic autonomy,” institutional fights over its recovery package and details of the Commission’s landmark Green Deal can also be justified in many cases.
But these ambitious plans — even if they have shortcomings — are also signs that the bloc is slowly but surely emerging as a standalone pole of financial, diplomatic and regulatory authority.
The Great Transatlantic Reconciliation will therefore have to be a two-way effort.
To breathe new life into the partnership, the U.S. and Europe will have to rethink what the relationship should be — and how it can take into account the shifts in power and geopolitics that took place under Trump.
For Washington, that will be the first step: acknowledging that times have changed, and rapidly, in the last four years.
Meanwhile, EU leaders will have to show they’re ready to join the U.S. as an equal. When Trump was throwing temper tantrums in the White House, it was often enough for the EU to be the only adult in the room. That won’t be the case anymore under Biden.
Instead, the 27-nation bloc will have to take on real responsibility, especially for dealing with its troubled neighborhood. In other words, no more dilly-dallying and delays over crucial foreign policy decisions. A decision on qualified majority voting on foreign and security policy will have to be taken sooner rather than later.
The EU will also have to be clearer in defining its own strategies and ambitions. It should clarify, for example, that Europeans’ quest for strategic autonomy is no danger to America; that the Green Deal will not lead to protectionist action; and that the EU wants the U.S. on board in discussing world trade reform.
Pulling its weight vis-à-vis the U.S. will also mean holding an uncomfortable but very necessary conversation on managing the rise of China.
Biden — despite anti-China rhetoric during his campaign and cross-party support for taking a tough line on Beijing — is likely to be less confrontational and more willing to listen to the EU’s view of China as a systemic rival, competitor and partner.
If anything, Washington’s focus on Asia is likely to continue to grow, even as that on Europe steadily declines.
That won’t be such a bad development: If Biden does succeed in his ambition to put “America back at the head of the table,” a strong and self-confident Europe with its own networks of power and influence can be a real partner for America — not just a pushover.