Stephen Rae is the former Group Editor-in-Chief at INM, Ireland’s largest media company. He is now principal at Kobn.ie, Leaders Advisory. He is also a media investor and consultant.
DUBLIN — The collective sigh of relief exuded across Western Europe as the U.S. election was called for Democratic nominee Joe Biden was more audible in some capitals than others.
In Dublin, the mood generally was one of dizzying excitement. In government circles, there was barely contained joy. Biden, the most Irish of U.S. presidents since John F. Kennedy, is a regular visitor to the island and likes to extoll his Irish roots, writing in 2016 that Ireland “will be written on my soul.”
Biden spoke with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin on Tuesday. In a statement, the Irish government said the two men had a “warm conversation” and Biden “recalled his strong Irish roots and his visit to Ireland with his family in 2016” as well as reaffirming “his full support for the Good Friday Agreement.”
But beyond the emotional resonance, Biden’s victory is something of a diplomatic coup for Dublin. For many in government circles, the hope is that Ireland’s strategic position between Boston and Berlin could make it an influential back-channel link between the EU, the U.K. and the U.S.
“Joe Biden is as near as it gets to a Lotto win for Ireland — and a Euro Lotto win at that,” Tommie Gorman, RTÉ’s former Europe editor and current Northern Ireland editor, told the public broadcaster.
For Dublin, the election outcome is an opportunity to press the reset button on relations with Washington, where four years of President Donald Trump hailing the Brexit vote made Downing Street a focus point for U.S. diplomats’ attention, at the expense of Dublin and other capitals.
“At a time when Ireland’s nearest neighbor is leaving the European Union, bringing challenges to that important relationship, it suddenly has new, real access to the White House,” Gorman noted. “That should help tiny Ireland’s efforts to reconfigure its relationship with the U.K. and its limited heft around the EU table.”
And that is key. Not only does the outcome of the election affect Irish-U.S. relations, it also helps to re-position Ireland on the European stage.
For the past four years, Dublin has received unwavering support from Brussels and the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier during often fractious negotiations. With Biden in the White House, Ireland may soon be able to contribute something in return, using its special access to Biden to help the EU rebuild the transatlantic alliance.
The first test of relations between the two powers will come when Europe and the Biden administration negotiate on trade and attempt to end the long-running Boeing-Airbus trade dispute. The annual exodus of Irish representatives to D.C. and the White House to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day on March 17 — coronavirus permitting, of course — could be the ideal place for Martin to use soft power to get the wheels of negotiations moving.
Ireland could also emerge as influential in negotiations on three different trade deals that are on the table — the post-Brexit U.K.-EU trade deal, the EU’s trade deal with the U.S., and the U.K.’s future trade agreement with the U.S.
“Post Brexit, the role of the island of Ireland will be central for the U.S., U.K. and EU in emerging trade deals,” according to Danny McCoy, head of influential industry umbrella group Ibec. “The three potential trade agreements all pivot around the island of Ireland to ensure the integrity of all three agreements given that Northern Ireland will be both within the EU Single Market and U.K. Customs regime.”
Ireland, home to Big Tech in Europe and more than 30 percent of EU data, is also a key player in Europe’s debate over how to manage the global digital space and how to keep it safe with a resilient cybersecurity structure.
As European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager said in a webinar with Irish business leaders last month, Dublin has been a major European trading center since the Vikings. Nowadays, “the trade routes are fiber cables and cellular signals. Dublin is still a major port, except today’s docks they are made of silicon.”
With the EU taking a leading role in global tech and green issues — in large part a reaction to America’s retreat from the world stage under Trump — these concerns will only grow in importance, as will Ireland’s potential role in navigating them.
Twenty years ago, Ireland was convulsed by the debate over whether it should look to Boston (low tax) or Berlin (higher taxes) for our socio-economic influence. Now the debate could easily be widened to include Beijing, for China too has upped its diplomatic presence here, citing Ireland as a bridge between the U.S. and the EU post Brexit.
As David O’Sullivan, the former EU ambassador to Washington, observed this week, Ireland and the EU will “have to agree how we manage the rise of China as a rival, a competitor and a partner, in building the global environment of the 21st century.”
“Trump’s approach of confrontation has not worked,” he said. “Together, the U.S. and the EU, with other like-minded countries, need to craft a much more nuanced response.”
Four years of Trump and Britain’s decision to leave the EU have nudged Ireland closer and closer to Brussels. Now, with a proud Irish-American poised to enter the White House, Ireland is well-positioned to use its access — both to the center of EU power and to Washington — to broker a reboot to the transatlantic relationship.
Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney reacted to Biden’s victory over the weekend by expressing hope the Democratic president-elect would appoint members of his Irish-American entourage to key positions in government. If he wants Ireland to capitalize on the momentum, Coveney might consider asking for a stimulus package to boost the diplomatic corps instead.