Martin Schulz, the outsider insider

BERLIN — Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel’s decision to bow out of the race for the chancellorship in favor of Martin Schulz is the perfect antidote to German voters’ frustrations. It will benefit his party, but it is also good news for Europe, as it proves that alternatives to the political status quo do, in fact, exist.

Many German voters are fed up with Angela Merkel, who remains uncontested within her own party. With the SPD currently polling at just 20 percent ahead of a general election in September, even a left-left-left coalition with the Greens and the far left (Die Linke) would not receive more than 40 percent of votes.

Merkel’s Christian Democrats, on the other hand, are polling at 37 percent. German parties, it appears, have just one choice if they don’t want to end up in the wilderness: Join the conservatives in a coalition — and keep Merkel in the chancellery.

This arithmetical stalemate has demoralized supporters of moderate parties and angered voters deeply dissatisfied with Merkel’s policies. No matter how they cast their vote, there hasn’t seemed to be a way of getting rid of her.

Faced with this sense of disempowerment, many no doubt plan to either refrain from voting or to cast their ballot for the anti-establishment, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Enter Schulz.

Schulz waves as he attends an extraordinary meeting of the SPD’s parliamentary group on January 25, 2017 in Berlin | Tobias Schwartz/AFP via Getty Images

If the former president of the European Parliament is able to revitalize his flailing party, even a slim possibility of ousting Merkel from power in September could help counter voter disillusionment — and limit the number of protest votes for the AfD.

Gabriel ultimately hasn’t been able to provide the momentum his party desperately needs. If a Schulz-shaped breath of fresh air helps the party gain a few percentage points in support, an SPD alliance with the Greens and the left becomes a palpable alternative to the “unavoidable Angela Merkel.”

German voters have waited for an alternative to Merkel for years. There is now massive potential to renew support for the German left, and for the SPD in particular.

* * *

Many Germans feel that elites in Berlin are aloof from voters’ daily concerns. They are uneasy with key decisions taken on European issues, on policies regarding the eurozone and refugees, for example. The chancellor’s measured, often complex statements have not convinced them. As has happened elsewhere, Germans are looking for a politician who can package complicated issues into simple language that speaks to their emotions. Someone like Schulz.

Known for his unambiguous, emotional language — a rare talent in political Berlin that is currently mastered only by Bavaria’s Christian Social Union and the far-right —  Schulz can easily fill this void.

Appealing to voters in plain language would give him plenty of media attention and force the CDU to re-learn to communicate in simpler, more impassioned terms. If the SPD and the CDU spar using clearer language, they will make it easier for voters to understand the debates and pick sides. This personalization and polarization will benefit both parties and improve political debate in Germany in the long-run.

 * * *

We don’t yet know much about Schulz’s platform, but he is likely to focus on his fortes: social welfare, civil liberties and Europe. His agenda is sure to have the backing of SPD heavyweights such as labor minister Andrea Nahles, soon-to-be former foreign secretary Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Gabriel.

An electoral campaign focused on Europe, social welfare and civil liberties is the best Germany’s establishment parties could have hoped for.

Merkel’s CDU will also benefit from a debate. Conservatives can easily point to politicians with compelling track records — the chancellor for her expertise in foreign affairs and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble for his successes in fiscal consolidation and in handling the eurozone. The party’s rising star, Deputy Finance Minister Jens Spahn, is also well-read on both topics.

An electoral campaign focused on Europe, social welfare and civil liberties is the best Germany’s establishment parties could have hoped for. These are issues on which they can easily outperform their contenders. The Greens will struggle to convince voters with their ecological platform; the far left can’t match the SPD’s social agenda; the liberal Free Democratic Party lags behind prominent fiscal conservatives Schäuble and Spahn; and the AfD will suffer as migration fades from importance in voters’ choices.

Post-election, the German government will rest on at least one strong anchor: a revitalized Merkel or Schulz. Finally, some good news for Europe.

Timo Lochocki is a transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. He is currently on an independent research stay focusing on the French elections.