Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
MUNICH — Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić is grappling with a “difficult decision.”
Should he embrace Europe, or should he continue to try and hedge bets by pursuing Serbia’s bid for EU membership, while also maintaining fraternal ties with its traditional Slavic ally, Russia?
Vučić’s enemies fume at his fence-sitting and refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia. “So far, even [the] brutal war in Ukraine has not caused Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to alter course,” argued Dimitar Bechev, a visiting fellow at Carnegie Europe. He noted that Belgrade is crowded with affluent and middle-class Russians taking advantage of daily flights, the visa-free regime and undemanding residency rules.
But in an exclusive interview with POLITICO, on the margins of the recent Munich Security Conference, Vučić indicated he appreciates that the time for a rethink is dawning, and he hinted at possibly climbing off the fence.
Just before leaving Belgrade for Munich, Vučić had told Serbian television the country was caught between a hammer and an anvil. And when asked by POLITICO whether the moment had arrived for Serbia to avoid getting flattened, he responded: “You’re going to get one sentence from me: Serbia will remain on its EU path. Okay, draw your own conclusions. But I think you understand me.”
Characteristically bowing his head for emphasis, he then added: “We’ll have some difficult choices in the future, no doubt. That’s all I can say.”
“Difficult” is a word Vučić throws around often.
As he departed for Munich, he noted on Instagram that he was heading to the conference for “difficult meetings.” And in my encounter with him, he used the word repeatedly, saying his bilateral conversations had been difficult “because we have different perspectives from most of the Western countries, and so nothing is easy.”
The Serbian president picks his words carefully, communicating just as much in hints and verbal nudges that hold out the promise of a conclusion — but he always ends up trailing off.
Is this an indication that he still wants to have it both ways, or does it show a leader nearing an historic decision? His advisers indicate the latter, whereas his critics argue he’s still pursuing a “strategy of constantly playing the West and Serbian moderates against Moscow and his domestic right-wing base,” according to Ivana Stradner, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
And that may be so, but in a turbulent political career spanning over 30 years, Vučić has pulled off some big U-turns — the latest of which has been engaging in talks about “normalizing” relations between Serbia and Kosovo, the independence of which neither Belgrade nor Moscow recognize.
And on Monday, Vučić and Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti finally gave tacit approval to an EU-brokered and United States-supported plan to help improve ties in the long term. Although, speaking after chairing the talks in Brussels, EU High Representative Josep Borrell also said that “more work is needed,” and the two leaders would meet again next month.
The Kosovo talks had featured in Vučić’s bilateral meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken during Munich as well, with one of the sticking points being the creation of an association of Serb majority municipalities in Kosovo and disputes regarding the extent of its powers. “What I can say is they [the Americans] wanted to hear our side. They showed respect to such a small country as we are. And we know what they expect; but they know also what we feel about safety and security of our people in Kosovo,” he said.
Meanwhile, Blinken described the sit-down as “productive,” underlining that “we share Serbia’s desire for a future with the EU.” And it’s noteworthy that in recent weeks, EU Commission officials have been tweeting friendly remarks about Serbia as well — mood music that could be a prelude to Vučić making his bigger “difficult decision” beyond Kosovo, namely the dilemma he faces in picking the EU path or maintaining a close friendship with Russia.
The Serbian leader clearly feels intense pressure from both both sides.
On one hand, he proudly talks about Serbia drawing in foreign investment. “As you know, last year we attracted €4.4 billion, which is much bigger than many mid-sized European Union countries. And most of those investments came from the EU,” he said. Fitch recently reaffirmed Serbia’s BB+ rating, and praised its “credible macroeconomic policy framework, prudent fiscal policy, and somewhat stronger governance” — although it did set these factors against high net external debt and cautioned that “geopolitical risks linger.”
This shows that advancing along the “European path” will be crucial for Serbia economically. And EU officials have stressed that any progress toward accession depends on Belgrade’s realignment with the bloc’s foreign policy.
On the other hand, Russia’s a traditional ally that has supported Serbia over Kosovo, and opinion polls since Ukraine’s invasion aren’t promising for a Western tilt.
Four months into Russia’s war, a survey found that 51 percent of Serbs would reject EU membership, with only 34 percent saying they’d vote to join. And in that survey, Russian President Vladimir Putin topped the list of favorite leaders. Similarly, a July 2022 survey by New Third Way found that 66 percent of Serbs felt closer to Moscow than to the West, and 40 percent wanted an end to membership talks with the EU. Results also showed that 59 percent of Serbs blame the West for the war in Ukraine, with 23 percent faulting Russia and 18 percent saying Moscow and the West share responsibility.
So, it isn’t clear how Vučić can ditch Russia and wholeheartedly embrace Europe — even if he really wants to.
Meanwhile, Russia’s been applying hybrid pressure on Vučić too. Two days before Munich, hundreds of Serbian nationalists and pro-Russian activists with ties to the paramilitary Wagner Group gathered in Belgrade, demanding an end to the normalization process with Kosovo. Carrying banners emblazoned with slogans like “Kosovo is the heart of Serbia” and “Betrayal of Kosovo is betrayal of Russia!” the protesters made death threats against Vučić.
Far-right leader Damjan Knezevic —the riotous rally’s organizer who has publicly backed the Wagner Group, which has been recruiting in Serbia — was subsequently arrested and charged with inciting violence. And Vučić himself accused the protesters of being anti-Serbian and paid by foreigners — presumably Russia.
These protests were still obviously rankling him when we sat down — so, too, was Wagner’s recruitment of Serbs. “I don’t need Wagner’s support; I don’t need them applauding or criticizing me,” he said, flashing irritation for the only time in our conversation. Serbs who’ve been recruited to fight in Ukraine “are going to be arrested when they come back to Serbia and [are] within reach of our institutions. You don’t recruit like that in a friendly country,” he added.
But like his supporters, Vučić is still clearly bitter about losing Kosovo. He stresses that Serbs, who experienced NATO bombing during the 1999 Kosovo war, can empathize with Ukrainians. “You cannot hear a single bad word in Serbia about Ukrainians,” he said.
But he also noted that Serbs see a double standard at play: “From the very first moment, we condemned what happened on February 24. And we have always been very supportive of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And even today, I can confirm to you, yes, Crimea, Donbas, Kherson are all part of Ukraine.” His complaint — and, according to him, that of many Serbs — is about duplicity, and that Serbia’s territorial integrity is of equal importance, yet was ignored. “That’s our biggest political and psychological problem,” he said.
Thus, Vučić’s struggle over his “difficult decision” involves his head, his heart, a lingering grudge about the Kosovo war and, as he himself acknowledged, a stubborn resistance to being manhandled into making a choice — an obduracy very much in line with the Serbian national character, he said.