Poland’s refugee challenge: Play ball or sit on the sidelines

WARSAW — If Poland wants to play a major role on the European stage, it will have to make a U-turn on its approach to migration policy.

Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Witold Waszczykowski recently said Poland “will be a very active country in the discussion about the future of the European Union.” But given the political track the government has taken, those remarks seem to be nothing but wishful thinking. Thanks to Poland’s anti-liberal shift under the Law and Justice government and its ongoing constitutional crisis, one of Europe’s great success stories has relegated itself to the peripheries of the EU and backed away from the Continent’s major political challenges.

Poland’s ruling party is unlikely to change its internal policy, even under pressure from European institutions. But even its biggest fans have to acknowledge that sitting on the European margins is not in Poland’s interests.

Warsaw has a great deal at stake in the upcoming Brexit negotiations — which will affect more than 800,000 Poles living in the U.K. The divorce proceedings will also have a large impact on EU financing and budget reforms, and could dramatically change Europe’s post-Cold War security order as the bloc struggles to deal with a resurgent Russia.

The most obvious solution — though perhaps the most unrealistic — would be for Poland to fulfill its obligations under the EU’s relocation scheme.

Polish politicians like to think of themselves as skilled realpolitiker and tough negotiators. But it is impossible to get a good deal if you have no bargaining power. If Poland wants a seat on the table (to avoid being on the menu), its government should actively engage with efforts to overcome Europe’s political stalemates.

Most importantly, Poland must make a radical shift on the issue it has done its best to thwart: migration policy. It’s time for the Polish government to put an end to the impasse.

The most obvious solution — though perhaps the most unrealistic — would be for Poland to fulfill its obligations under the EU’s relocation scheme. Law and Justice has made its refusal of refugees one of its cornerstone policies, using the December terrorist attack in Berlin to reaffirm the soundness of its position.

But Poland will lose out if it offers only obstruction. If it is unwilling to accept any asylum-seekers, Poland — and its Visegrad Group allies — should come up with an alternative proposal, ideally based on the EU’s conception of “effective solidarity.” It should also explore a “pay-to-not-play” option, in which countries that choose not to take in refugees financially compensate those that do. Such a compromise would be far from perfect. But if it were to be restricted to a specific time period, say five years, it should be acceptable to all sides.

Such a political U-turn would warrant explanation to voters at home, but the alternative would have far more negative consequences for Poland, sidelining it from key negotiations on the issue. Stubbornly rejecting common, binding solutions would also backfire when questions of the next European budget or EU-Russian relations come to the table.

A shift to a constructive dialogue in this fragile matter would send the EU the message that Warsaw is ready to be a reliable partner again.

Similarly, in light of the alarmingly high burden Italy is facing in dealing with the migrant crisis, Poland should actively support German efforts to limit uncontrolled migration from Northern Africa.

If Poland doesn’t want to be left behind, it’s about time to give Brussels — and Germany — something to work with.

Merkel has been extremely reticent in commenting on political changes in Warsaw, despite heavy criticism from Poland on her approach to the refugee crisis. Some might say Merkel is waiting for Poland to define its role within the EU; others describe it as a lack of hope for constructive dialogue. Either way, Merkel has not burned any bridges. Her visit to Poland at the beginning of February could be the perfect chance for Warsaw to signal a fresh start on both sides.

Such a scenario isn’t just political fiction. Poland appears to be waking up to the strategic significance of a Polish-German partnership in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave the bloc. Last July, in fact, Law and Justice chief Jarosław Kaczyński softened his tone toward Berlin, saying it would be in Poland’s interest for Merkel to stay on for another term. Action must now follow words.

If Poland doesn’t want to be left behind, it’s about time to give Brussels — and Germany — something to work with. Failure to do so will come at a high price. Like after the fall of communism, Poland’s path back to the European stage leads through Berlin.

Adam Traczyk is co-founder and director of independent think tank Global.Lab in Warsaw.