Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
Today, Israelis don’t believe a Jewish state can live alongside a Palestinian one.
As it stands, they have lost all faith in a two-state solution — not that they had much to begin with, even before Hamas’ October 7 attacks on southern Israel. Rather, they want bigger and better fortifications and greater vigilance in the wake of the intelligence and security lapses that failed to prevent what was clearly a long-planned pogrom.
“Israelis are in belligerent mood,” pollster Dahlia Scheindlin told POLITICO. She was speaking after a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 75 percent of Jewish Israelis think the country should ignore mounting pressure from the United States to wind down the war in Gaza. And another poll by Gallup recently showed that 65 percent oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
This hardening of Israeli opinion regarding a two-state solution is in lockstep with clear signs that the October 7 attacks will tilt the country further right, dominated in its vanguard by the ideas of West Bank settlers who want Israel to have the footprint of all the biblical lands of the Jews. This is in keeping with a historical pattern, Scheindlin said — whenever Israel is dealt a major violent shock, right-wing parties and politicians benefit.
However, if elections are held soon, this won’t necessarily benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself or his Likud Party. Most Israelis blame Netanyahu for the bloody security debacle, and seething with anger, they just want him gone — whether sooner or later. But according to Scheindlin, the basic direction of political orientation is unlikely to budge with or without him.
This suggests that the overarching question about Palestinians’ future and their national aspirations will continue to be sidelined — let alone serious talk of the two-state solution.
But not all Israelis are ready to settle for this. Many of the country’s old political and defense stalwarts are stirring, starting to plot and plan. They’re insisting on being heard, arguing that ignoring the Palestinian question simply won’t work and that a two-state solution is the only way forward because, as they see it, it’s the only viable option.
“It isn’t fashionable to trust Palestinians, any Palestinians. This is the time when you’re meant to hate them. But this is bullshit,” said former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. “When I argue with people, sometimes I say, ‘What is the solution? What do you think can be done? Do you think that we can continue to control 4.5 million people without rights, with unlimited occupation, forever? Do you think that can work?’ Then they, of course, don’t have an answer,” he added.
And when asked how Israelis could be convinced to entertain the idea of a two-state solution, “You just have to do it. This is an act of leadership. This is what we’re missing now,” Olmert emphatically responded.
“Look, I’ve learned in my political career that reality is created sometimes by the sheer determination and forceful decisions made by leaders. What’s popular, what isn’t popular doesn’t really matter. The two-state solution was never a popular idea for a majority of Israelis. But had it been implemented, had we sealed a deal in the past, the majority would have gone along,” he said.
Not that Olmert thinks Netanyahu will, or can, change his spots. “Because for him to do so would mean his immediate political destruction — his right-wing governing coalition would fall apart,” he said.
Like Olmert, Yaakov Peri, a former head of the Israeli security agency Shin Bet — commonly called Shabak — is also a proponent of a two-state solution, as he sees no real alternative. “I was for a two-state solution from the beginning, from 1993 after the Oslo Accords,” he said, referring to the historic agreements that created the Palestinian National Authority (PA) in the West Bank and was meant to set Israelis and Palestinians on the path toward a final negotiated settlement.
Peri agrees with Olmert that public skepticism can be overcome, noting that most Israelis were suspicious of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty signed by Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin in 1979. The Egyptian and Israeli leaders of the time courted great risks to get that agreement signed, and it has held ever since.
“But our governments, for more than the 20 years, just have not entertained a two-state seriously. An independent Palestinian state isn’t something they’ve been willing to stake anything on,” Peri said, sitting by a bookshelf displaying, among others, U.S. General Colin Powell’s autobiography.
Powell had formulated a doctine outlining key questions leaders should ask themselves before committing to military action — including questions like: Is there a clear attainable objective? Have the risks and costs been fully analyzed? And is there a credible exit strategy? Questions that Israel is in dire need of asking now.
Peri also dismissed the idea that there are no serious partners for peace among Palestinian leaders — something Netanyahu has bemoaned for years — and mentioned possible moderate successors to the 88-year-old PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
Top of Peri’s list is Mohammed Dahlan, the former leader of Fatah in Gaza who is now a successful businessman in the United Arab Emirates and a close friend and adviser to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Peri and Dahlan speak frequently; and the former Shabak boss even gave him a call while sitting down with POLITICO.
As the war risks only radicalizing Palestinians further — both in Gaza and the West Bank — Peri fears that unless the current dynamic is altered, there’s a real risk that Hamas will, indeed, get stronger in the West Bank at the expense of the Fatah-dominated PA.
According to him, collaboration between the PA’s security agencies and Israel remains good, and for now the PA has a tight grip on Judea, east Jerusalem, Ramallah and Hebron. “But in the northern part of Samaria, places like Jenin, Tukaram and Nablus, they’re weak,” he fretted, shaking his head at the mere thought of the West Bank exploding.
This is something Ronen Bar, the current head of Shabak, fears too. Along with other security chiefs, Bar warned the Israeli war Cabinet that the West Bank is on the brink of an eruption due to a rise in violence by Israeli settlers and incidents taking place between them and Palestinians.
“We are at a crossroads,” Olmert said. “There are many good people among the Palestinians. Very bright. If there is momentum for negotiations, Palestinians will find the proper guys to represent them.”
But this isn’t the view of the Israeli right — of those in Likud or in the hard-core nationalist parties Netanyahu needs to keep onside to maintain his governing coalition. Rather, at every opportunity available, he’s been damning the Oslo process, reiterating that it was all a terrible mistake, and that there’s no one to negotiate with on the Palestinian side for peace.
And whether there is or isn’t, according to Likud lawmaker and former Israeli envoy to the U.N. Danny Danon, this isn’t the time to even broach the subject. A fierce critic of the Oslo Accords, he told POLITICO: “This isn’t just about my ideas. After the trauma of October 7, about 99 percent of Israelis aren’t in the mindset to even discuss two states.”