What if Donald Trump played the Kremlin?

MOSCOW — Ever since U.S. intelligence officials accused Russia of interfering in November’s presidential elections, President Donald Trump has been forced to deny accusations that he is a Kremlin puppet.

There’s another explanation for the Kremlin’s meddling, one that may seem counterintuitive, but — in the absence of a smoking gun proving that Trump is in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pocket — is equally viable. What if Trump played Putin?

Consider the possibility that Trump misled the Kremlin with vaguely positive statements on issues crucial to Russia, such as lifting economic sanctions and recognizing Crimea, with no intention of following through. In the process, he would have gained, without overtly asking for it, assistance in his White House bid, in the form of cyberattacks and fake news.

Entirely speculative and without watertight proof? Definitely. But so is the oft-repeated trope that Trump is a Manchurian president, his every move controlled by coded messages from Moscow. And Trump’s recent reversal on previously Kremlin-friendly positions increases the probability that Putin was the pawn in this game all along.

Trump and his campaign team might not even have believed the Kremlin could decisively tip the elections in his favor. But, as the outsider with the longest shot at the White House, anything that had the potential to damage Hillary Clinton’s chances would have been worth entertaining.

Trump’s startling transformation from hero to villain was complete when he vowed last week to make the U.S. nuclear arsenal “top of the pack.”

And keeping the Russians on Trump’s side wouldn’t have required much beyond the occasional nebulous reassurances that he, as president, would deal with Russia as an equal partner, rather than as an adversary. Putin, desperate to rescue Russia’s ailing economy and restore its status as a great power, could plausibly have done all the rest himself.

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After all, the Russians need Trump more than he needs them. U.S. and European sanctions imposed by the Obama administration over the Kremlin’s seizure of Crimea, twinned with low global prices for oil, have hit the country’s economy hard.

Around 20 million people — some 15 percent of the population — are living below the poverty line, defined by the government as an income of just $174 a month. That’s a rise of 3 million people since 2014, when sanctions were first imposed.

There’s also next year’s presidential election in Russia to consider. No one doubts that Putin will secure a fourth term of office, taking him into 2024, but Russian media have reported that the Kremlin is worried a low turnout could undermine his authority. The White House’s recognition of Russian authority in Crimea, whose seizure by Russian forces triggered wild celebrations in Moscow, would have given Putin a major boost ahead of the vote.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been assumed to benefit from Trump’s election | Aleksey Nikolskyi/AFP via Getty Images

A U.S. president who vowed to “look into” both issues, as Trump did on the campaign trail, is a candidate in which Putin would have deemed worth investing time, funds, and effort.

It’s worth noting too that the Russians are certainly acting as though they’ve been cheated. When the White House declared on February 14 that the U.S. would not scrap sanctions until Russia handed Crimea back to Ukraine, pro-Kremlin politicians and state media reacted with indignant confusion.

Fawning coverage of Trump by Russian state television, which hailed the U.S. president as an “alpha male” after his election triumph in November, vanished overnight. “A complete Trump blackout,” tweeted Alexey Kovalev, a well-known Russian journalist who monitors state media propaganda.

Russian officials, already angered by the resignation of Michael Flynn as National Security Adviser over his contacts with Sergei Kislyak, the Russian ambassador in Washington, then heard James “Mad Dog” Mattis, the newly appointed U.S. defense secretary, announce that NATO needed to deal with Russia from a “position of strength.”

And just when it seemed things couldn’t get any worse for Moscow, Trump filled the vacancy left by Flynn’s sudden departure by hiring General Herbert Raymond McMaster, a Russia hawk whose appointment was cheered by Senator John McCain, arguably Putin’s biggest critic in the U.S.

Trump’s startling transformation from hero to villain was complete when he vowed last week to make the U.S. nuclear arsenal “top of the pack,” triggering warnings of a new arms race in Moscow.

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The disappointment in Russia is palpable. Is this really the same Trump who seemed so promising during the election campaign? The man who praised Putin as a strong leader and dropped heavy hints he was ready to dismember “obsolete” NATO? Where is the Trump whose election win they had toasted with champagne?

H.R. McMaster is a Russia hawk whose appointment was cheered by Senator John McCain, arguably Putin’s biggest critic in the U.S. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

The Kremlin, as it has done since November, insists it never saw Trump through rose-tinted glasses. But senior officials are now openly decrying the U.S. president’s pivot on Russia policy, often in insulted tones reminiscent of a businessman swindled by his wheeler-dealer rival.

“Focus on implementing your campaign pledges. Everything was said during the campaign: fixing relations with Russia, with China, fighting terrorism,” Vyacheslav Volodin, Russia’s parliamentary speaker, said in parliament on February 15. “When you implement your campaign program, everything will be fine.”

Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, was bleaker, admitting that Trump’s about-turn on Crimea and other issues was worrying senior officials. “Like a cold shower, it has cooled some of our hasty and inflated expectations with regard to Trump and his team,” he told state media that same week.

And yet, Putin may still have reason to smile. Even if Trump did hoodwink the Russians, his presidency isn’t completely without its advantages for the Kremlin.

Some, such as Alexei Pushkov, a prominent Russian senator, appear to be in denial, suggesting Trump remained committed to improving relations with Moscow but faced “monstrous resistance” from the U.S. political establishment.

Others have argued Trump simply wants to put some daylight between himself and Russia to silence his critics. But the president’s actions will leave an indelible mark on Washington’s relationship with Russia — and not the kind pro-Kremlin lawmakers had expected when they cheered his move into the White House.

And yet, Putin may still have reason to smile. Even if Trump did hoodwink the Russians, his presidency isn’t completely without its advantages for the Kremlin.

According to Stanislav Belkovsky, a former Kremlin insider, Russian officials were ecstatic over Trump’s election win because they believed it proved the “weakness of American democracy.” Trump’s first few weeks in office will only have strengthened that conviction.

“In this respect,” Belkovsky said. “Putin is the winner.”

Marc Bennetts is a Moscow-based journalist and author of “I’m Going to Ruin Their Lives: Inside Putin’s War on Russia’s Opposition.”