The populists haven’t won yet

BERLIN — Western democracies took a pounding in 2016. As Europe heads into a packed election year, fears are running high that the anti-establishment, anti-immigrant and anti-globalization sentiments that pushed Britain toward Brexit and the United States toward Trump will deal the Continent a decisive blow in 2017.

And yet, as much as the doomsayers would have us believe that far-right parties are on the cusp of prevailing in the heart of Europe, the truth is that the populist surge is far from unstoppable.

In the Netherlands, where elections will take place on March 15, far-right firebrand Geert Wilders has seen his once solid lead over Prime Minister Mark Rutte wither. The two men’s parties are now tied in the polls, and even if Wilders takes the top spot, there is little chance he will be able to form a governing coalition.

French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is not faring much better. She may be holding steady in the polls, but she has seen her commanding lead neutralized by independent candidate Emmanuel Macron. And she’s expected to lose a runoff against virtually any other contender in the second round.

Alternative for Germany has never reached the prominence of its Dutch and French peers, and its support is faltering; it is dropping into the single digits in the polls. To break into the mainstream, the party would have to make a miraculous recovery before September’s federal elections. Instead, it looks likely to remain a marginal force in the new Bundestag.

Nobody needs reminding that opinion polls are fickle. Last year’s electoral upsets were a case in point, and the European far right certainly felt vindicated by the British and American ballots.

But there is mounting evidence that Europe’s nationalist, xenophobic and populist fringe is finding it more difficult to attract voters. As campaign slogans collide with reality, many on the Continent who might once have cast a protest vote are rethinking their decisions as both countries struggle with political chaos and uncertainty. Their gripe with the political establishment may still be quite real, but their inclination to punish it through the ballot box has dampened.

Protest voters (and even non-voters) are increasingly drawn to candidates within the political mainstream.

In France, Macron is a former government minister. And in Germany, Martin Schulz is a former president of the European Parliament turned Social Democrat contender for chancellor. Both men have been remarkably successful in portraying themselves as fresh faces, shaking up the old political guard in their countries

Despite their long-time membership in the political elite — and with a dose of anti-elite rhetoric of their own — they have successfully tapped into the French and German electorates’ fatigue with politics as usual, sapping the populists’ claim that they are the only alternative to the status quo.

The far right has also lost its monopoly on fiery rhetoric and tough political agendas, most noticeably on the issue of migration, where both discourse and policy have markedly hardened. From Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s ultimatum — “Act normal or leave!” — to tightened asylum policies in Germany, the political mainstream has scrambled to placate the anxieties and disaffection that fueled voters’ shift to the right. And this pandering to nationalist impulses seems to be working — at least in the short term.

This stagnation and even weakening of the European far right is very likely more than a statistical quirk. The appeal of nationalist extremism is hitting its limits, at least in the three key EU countries going to the polls this year.

Of course, mainstream parties can’t rest easy. A breakdown in the EU’s refugee deal with Turkey and a massive influx of migrants, another eurozone crisis, or a new spate of terror attacks all have the potential to throw fuel on the populist fire. Russia, too, is stepping up its support for far-right parties across the Continent.

Facing down the populist challenge will demand soul-searching, vigilance and savvy — both from governments and opposition benches. Most importantly, it will take all the political sobriety European citizens can muster as they enter the voting booths. The good news is that these political reflexes are kicking in. This will likely be a disappointing year for Europe’s far right.

Joerg Forbrig is senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin.