LONDON — Britain is in the midst of two party leadership contests that could reshape the political landscape for decades to come — and lead to the Conservative Party enjoying a new era of dominance.
Contrary to the unwritten law in politics that the summer is quiet, both the main opposition Labour Party and the insurgent United Kingdom Independence Party have been engulfed by factionalism.
In the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn is having to fight for the right to remain leader, while in UKIP the race to find a replacement for Nigel Farage has descended into an unprecedented outbreak of infighting.
In recent years the Conservative Party’s claim to be the “natural party of government” was beginning to sound hollow. In 2010 the fall of New Labour was followed not by a Conservative majority but by David Cameron being forced to share power with the Liberal Democrats.
While there are risks of a possible economic downturn and protracted negotiations with the EU, May is the party leader most in tune with the national mood.
While the Conservatives did manage to win a majority in 2015, it was hardly inspiring. A majority of only 12 seats, the smallest since 1974, brought little security. With a 66 percent turnout, the party had actually only won support from 25 percent of the population — hardly a compelling mandate.
But in the aftermath of Britain’s vote for Brexit, the Conservative Party’s competitors have plunged into full-blown crises. Three factors are now paving the way for a new Conservative ascendancy.
The national mood
Even before the leadership elections, there was a new climate in post-referendum Britain that heavily favored the Conservatives.
For the average voter, the three most pressing issues are Brexit, immigration, and the economy. Conservatives hold a clear and often striking lead over Labour on all three issues, leading by 18 points on Brexit, 18 points on the economy and 8 points on immigration, according to YouGov figures.
Theresa May has also got off to a strong start as prime minister. While there are risks of a possible economic downturn and protracted negotiations with the EU, May is the party leader most in tune with the national mood. Some might talk of the need to establish a progressive alliance to keep Britain in the EU but the reality is that Brexit was a majority view in an estimated 421 of the 574 constituencies in England and Wales — including 60 percent of Labour-held seats.
In appointing the “three Brexiteers” — David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox — to her cabinet team, May has attempted to appeal directly to these voters. If she is also able to reform free movement and credibly claim to have delivered on immigration, which most voters have supported reducing since the 1960s, then she will be wildly popular.
Decimated Labour Party
Labour, however, risks becoming irrelevant. Though Corbyn is already the most unpopular Labour leader since pollsters began probing voters’ views, he is currently the strong favorite to be reelected by Labour members.
Corbynistas may point to the high turnout at their rallies but nationally the picture is dire. While 52 percent of voters feel that May is the best choice for prime minister among British party leaders, only 18 percent feel the same way about Corbyn.
Given that Labour has ceded virtually all of its territory in Scotland, to even stand a chance of winning a majority at the next general election the party will need to establish a 13-point lead over the Conservatives. Currently, it is polling at 28-30 percent, close to the same level that brought it defeat in 2010 and 2015. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are nearing 40 percent.
He might be unpopular, but Jeremy Corbyn is currently the strong favorite to be reelected by Labour members | Rob Stothard/Getty Images
Corbyn has also completely lost the support of his own MPs. If, as some suggest, his reelection in September triggers a split, a once proud movement could quite plausibly be consigned to the wilderness for a generation. This is reflected in new polling by YouGov, which suggests that while 28 percent of the population feel instinctively loyal to the Labour brand, any splinter party on either the radical-left or center-left would receive only 13-15 percent of the national vote.
Under the U.K.’s first-past-the-post system this would spell complete disaster.
The UKIP factor
UKIP has been plagued by infighting since the referendum. Following the resignation of Farage, the favored candidate to replace him, MEP Steven Woolfe, was blocked from standing for the leadership by the party’s National Executive Committee. Farage was furious and publicly dismissed the ruling body of his own party as “amateurs.”
While not all UKIP voters lean toward the Conservatives, many do. At the 2014 European Parliament elections, for example, one in two UKIP voters had previously voted Conservative.
Many inside UKIP trace the decision to a much deeper rivalry between Farage and ex-Conservatives Douglas Carswell and Neil Hamilton who some claim are trying to stage a coup, sidelining the Farageists and pushing UKIP down a more moderate path.
There are two possible outcomes. Either Farage and his followers will continue to seek internal reform, calling an extraordinary meeting, scrapping the ruling body and coalescing around a candidate like Woolfe to lead in their tradition. Or they will fail and form a new group, perhaps modeled on the 5Star Movement in Italy and organized around influential UKIP donor Arron Banks, who has amassed a considerable amount of data through his referendum Leave.EU platform.
Whatever the outcome, the collapse of Labour and UKIP will leave May and the Conservatives as the main beneficiary.
While not all UKIP voters lean toward the Conservatives, many do. At the 2014 European Parliament elections, for example, one in two UKIP voters had previously voted Conservative.
So long as May pitches directly to these voters, she could win back around half of the UKIP electorate and bring the Conservatives dozens of new seats where currently Labour MPs have small majorities and are hanging on by a thread.
The Labour Party, meanwhile, will increasingly fall back to become a party of London, university towns and its working-class bastions where healthy majorities were built up generations ago. Middle England and swing seats will be well beyond its reach.
In the absence of any serious and coherent opposition, Prime Minister May could yet lead the Conservative Party to heights that they have not reached since the heyday of the only other woman prime minister in British political history.
Matthew Goodwin is professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent and a senior fellow at Chatham House.