Only winner of Britain’s election will be populism

LONDON — The United Kingdom’s snap general election on June 8 could be the first vote in the country to see both major party leaders running for office as populists.

Even as the Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn vows to stand up for “ordinary working people” in a system rigged for the rich, Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May is pledging to carry out “the will of the people” in her showdown with the European Union.

Loosely defined as the idea of “the people” versus “the elites,” populism has had a subterranean role in British politics for years, most notably in the country’s tabloids, which have long railed against snobbish liberals and the “bullies in Brussels.”

Populism is more of a style than policy agenda, and takes a very specific form and flavor in British politics. Whereas other countries depend on “larger-than-life” characters like Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump to rally support, populism in the U.K. is a more understated affair, its message tailored for the home market. (Even the demagogic former UKIP leader Nigel Farage is careful not to stray beyond the bounds of public taste.)

May and Corbyn — two leaders who rode into power on a wave of anti-establishment feeling — are mild-mannered to the point of universal boredom. Neither would look out of place in an English period drama. But their populist message is clear enough in their language.

“It is the establishment versus the people, and it is our historic duty to make sure that the people prevail” — Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

In her Conservative Party conference speech last year, May caused outrage by saying that “if you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere.” But what her critics missed was that May was referring to exploitative bosses, tax-dodging corporations and directors who raid their company’s pension pots.

Since running for prime minister after the EU referendum, May has adopted the rhetoric of social justice. And sensing a shift in the national mood, she has increasingly linked this pseudo-egalitarian platform with the U.K.’s vote for Brexit.

In that same conference speech, May repeatedly called Brexit a “revolution,” claiming the referendum result “was a vote not just to change Britain’s relationship with the European Union, but to call for a change in the way our country works, and the people for whom it works, forever.”

Jeremy Corbyn out stumping for votes in Yorkshire | Leon Neal/Getty Images

And when she called for a snap general election last month, May drew these strands even closer, hailing Brexit as “an opportunity to ensure that this really is a country that works for everyone and not just the privileged few.”

Labour’s Corbyn, meanwhile, launched his election campaign with a textbook populist speech, describing the contest as “the Conservatives, the party of privilege and the richest, versus the Labour Party, the party that is standing up for working people to improve the lives of all.”

“It is the establishment versus the people, and it is our historic duty to make sure that the people prevail,” he added.

Corbyn might prove to be the most unpopular populist in history. The latest polls show his party trailing the Conservatives by a large margin, while his personal approval ratings have been consistently dismal. Outside the devotion of a majority of the Labour Party’s members, there’s little evidence Corbyn can tap into public anger and be a people’s champion.

Corbyn’s talk of “a rigged system set up by the wealth extractors, for the wealth extractors” might be music to the ears of his left-wing supporters. But for the average voter, it makes him seem cranky and alien. This impression is only helped by Corbyn’s long record of fringe politics and his soft line toward groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA.

Corbyn’s promise of a kinder, gentler Brexit suffers from a lack of confidence among voters that he can deliver, and does too little to distinguish his platform from that of the government.

Theresa May’s “strong and stable” campaign mantra is well-suited to a British audience | Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

This is ironic, given that Corbyn was elected leader on the back of criticism that former party head Ed Miliband contested the 2015 general election offering “austerity lite” instead of a real alternative to the Tory Party.

Now voters see a Labour Party signed up to Brexit but without the government’s conviction, under a sketchy leader whom they suspect of being two or three-faced on the subject anyway. Corbyn — a longtime critic of the EU — was accused of campaigning half-heartedly against Brexit, and has since whipped his MPs to back the government’s Brexit bill without amendment.

By contrast, May’s campaign mantra of “strong and stable leadership” might sound like a dull populist battle cry. But it’s well-suited to a British audience whose beloved wartime poster invites them to “keep calm and carry on.” The image of a tough prime minister standing tall against meddling Europeans is no accident. It runs deep enough with voters to count as sotto voce demagogy.

When Labour suffers its inevitable defeat in June, Corbyn’s supporters will be given further reason to believe the system is rigged against them and their hero.

In the end, it’s unlikely to prove anything close to an equal contest. May is pledging to stand up to the EU, to the Scottish National Party’s calls for independence, and to Islamic terrorists. Corbyn is only promising to stand up to May. In doing so, he has failed the key test of a populist strategy — he has unwittingly allied himself with the “enemies of the people.”

When Labour suffers its inevitable defeat in June, Corbyn’s supporters will be given further reason to believe the system is rigged against them and their hero. May’s probable landslide will “strengthen the hand” of a prime minister who has little tolerance for domestic criticism. This will be a victory for populism and demagogy. Even worse, it could open the door for a more charming and ruthless populist to walk through when the promises fall flat.

Adam Barnett is a freelance journalist and former staff writer at Left Foot Forward. He has written for Private Eye, Little Atoms, New Statesman, Prospect, Dissent, Progress, and the Independent.