With London in turmoil, Tories play the Scotland card

EDINBURGH — A century ago, the guiding dictum of the Irish independence struggle was that “England’s difficulty is Ireland’s opportunity.” Now, in the wake of an inconclusive British general election result, the phrase has an unlikely echo: Tory difficulties in England present Scottish Tories with a major political opportunity.

After two decades in the electoral doldrums, Scottish Conservatism has undergone a surprising revival. In May last year, the Scottish branch of the party became the principal opposition in the devolved Scottish parliament. And in last week’s general election it added a dozen Westminster MPs to its previous tally of just one.

In Scotland, Conservatives doubled their share of the vote. This was in sharp contrast to the party’s performance in England, where the Tories lost 13 seats and, with them, the party’s majority in the House of Commons. If Scottish Conservatives had not done as well as they did, Theresa May would not have survived as prime minister.

That’s why Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has suddenly been thrust onto the U.K. political stage. Long admired by Westminster politicos, media outlets are now scrambling to find out what she wants. Since the election, she’s frequently led network television and radio bulletins, an unusual experience for the leader of a party that once had fewer MPs than there are pandas at the Edinburgh Zoo.

For the time being, the British — if not the European — Union is safe.

Along with the Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland, Davidson’s 13 Scottish Conservatives are one of two “blocs” of MPs that are central to the government’s survival. And the leaders of both blocs have made it consistently clear they want something in return.

In Davidson’s case, that something is a more “open” Brexit.

Contrary to the impression she gave in a post-election press conference, Davidson isn’t advocating for the U.K. (or indeed Scotland) to remain part of the EU’s single market after Brexit (the position of the SNP-led Scottish government).

Where Davidson deviates from London is in prioritizing “free markets” and maintaining the “largest amount of access” to the single market over curbing immigration, which May considers paramount.

David Mundell, U.K. Scottish secretary and Leader of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson leave 10 Downing Street on June 12, 2017 in London | Leon Neal/Getty Images

Since the election, the Scottish Conservative leader’s tactics have been more about style than substance. Davidson is more concerned with political positioning than bringing forward a detailed proposal for what a more “open” Brexit might look like.

But she has stressed the need to avoid “an unnecessarily divisive Brexit” and insisted that it is not “Remoaning” to point out there are “genuine issues” to address.

Davidson is keen to show voters up north that the Scottish Conservatives have clout at Westminster. This dovetails with her long-term strategy; by May 2021 Davidson would like to be first minister of Scotland.

To get there, she has to play the Scottish card, appearing to defend the region’s interests in the same way the Scottish National Party has done for the past decade.

Davidson is contrasting herself to Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon — and so far it’s working. Even as the SNP leader presented her depleted band of 35 MPs to the media outside the Houses of Parliament in Edinburgh, Davidson was striding into No. 10 Downing Street for talks with the prime minister. The latter led the news bulletins, while Sturgeon’s call for a Brexit “pause” hardly registered.

The Scottish Conservatives will be “no less passionate than the SNP in representing Scotland’s rights” at Westminster, Davidson wrote in a recent piece for the Mail on Sunday. But rather than championing “Scotland’s needs” in a “destructive” way, they would do so “constructively,” showing how the U.K. “can work for Scotland.”

Davidson is clearly encroaching on the SNP’s home turf, both in terms of policy and strategy. She has promised to support the oil and gas industry and ensure the “needs” of Scotland’s fishing communities are “addressed” as the U.K. prepares to quit the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy.

Scottish Conservative Party leader Ruth Davidson and leader of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon during the Scottish Television Debate election debate with the Scottish political party leaders | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Some have described Davidson’s strategy as “nationalist unionism” — both pro-U.K. and pro-Scotland — an apparently paradoxical approach that in fact has deep roots in Scottish Conservatism.

Davidson has also suggested that Scottish Conservative MPs will take their cues from her, rather than the prime minister. This is more symbolic than real: Those 13 MPs will still take the U.K. Conservative whip and won’t countenance voting against the government on any big-ticket items like the budget or Brexit-related legislation.

Davidson’s intention is to fashion a relationship similar to what the Bavarian Christian Social Union enjoys with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats — a party within a party that is in a prime position to challenge and direct policy at the federal level. The combination allows Davidson to appear to “stand up to” the prime minister, as well as for Scotland.

This is a key dynamic in Scottish politics. Sure, a majority of voters still favor remaining part of the U.K., but most Scots are, to a degree, fiercely defensive of Scottish interests and like to see their representatives, whether Tory, Labour or SNP, fighting in Scotland’s corner at Westminster.

The proof, to deploy a very British turn of phrase, will be in the pudding. An embattled May obviously has other things on her mind. Satisfying competing demands when it comes to Brexit might prove unachievable, and Davidson might get nothing beyond a few more meetings at Downing Street.

But for the time being, the British — if not the European — Union is safe. By exploiting England’s difficulty, the Scottish Tories can again become Scotland’s dominant unionist, and crucially nationalist, political party.

David Torrance is a political commentator and biographer of Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon.