Trump and Poles, birds of a feather

KRAKOW, Poland — Donald Trump’s stopover in Warsaw ahead of this week’s G20 meeting — and before he touches down in Berlin, London or Paris on his second European trip — is a diplomatic coup for the Polish government. Designed to boost Poland’s hopes of becoming a bigger international player and diluting Brussels’ power in the region, the U.S. president’s big set-piece speech at the Warsaw Uprising memorial will be attended by an enthusiastic audience bussed in by the populist Law and Justice party (PiS), in anticipation of enthusiastic praise of the government’s program.

The occasion will stand in stark contrast to former U.S. President Barack Obama’s last visit to the Polish capital, where he “expressed concern over certain actions” relating to the “rule of law, independent judiciaries and a free press.” Trump’s approach reflects the fact that he, or at least those who advise him, like what they see in Warsaw and he will try to capitalize on their agreement on major issues like migration, defense and a distrust of institutions such as the media and the judiciary.

Both administrations came to power in similar circumstances. In the 2015 election, PiS faced an incumbent party, Civic Platform (PO), that had been in office for eight years — just as the Democratic Party in the U.S. had been before Trump’s victory in November.

In both cases, the men responsible for that previous success, Obama and Donald Tusk, stood aside, making way for former members of their cabinets. Both would-be replacements, Hillary Clinton and Ewa Kopacz, led their parties to defeat with similarly complacent, lackluster and out-of-touch campaigns. Trump and PiS also benefited from electoral mathematics: Trump lost the popular vote but won the electoral college; PiS gained just 37.5 percent of the vote but converted their support into a majority of seats in parliament.

Trump and the Polish ruling party also share a distain for the conventional rules and practices of democracy.

To be sure, neither victory can be ascribed merely to luck and the failings of the opposition. PiS and Trump took office by offering hope to their countries’ “deplorables” — voters from forgotten, poorer regions who felt they had been left behind by economic developments and ignored by a liberal, globalist, metropolitan ruling class that holds their traditional values in contempt.

Both also played on fears of Muslim migration. Trump sought to implement a travel ban against various Muslim-majority countries, including an indefinite moratorium on Syrian refugees. PiS has steadfastly refused to accept its EU-designated refugee quota.

And like Trump, PiS has emphasized the need to bolster border security, including turning away large numbers of (mostly Muslim) asylum seekers on its eastern frontier. This focus on national security has also seen PiS commit itself to increasing defense spending by 25 percent. Trump, meanwhile, plans to boost the Pentagon’s budget and has called on fellow NATO allies to shoulder more of the burden on defense spending.

Trump also mirrors PiS in his pledge to boost domestic industry and protect coal mining in particular. Poland still generates 81 percent of its electricity from coal, and the government has promised the fossil fuel will remain the main source of energy for decades to come. Trump unilaterally pulled America out of the Paris Agreement, while PiS is trying to water down the EU’s joint emission reduction commitments stemming from that global agreement.

Trump and the Polish ruling party also share a distain for the conventional rules and practices of democracy, including the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary. They have railed against court rulings they disagree with, questioning not only the judiciary’s interpretation of the law, but its right to stand in the way of decisions taken by elected members of the executive branch. They have cast judges as political opponents and bastions of the old elite.

The PiS government has shown how flimsy constitutional checks and balances can be in the face of executive power. It has, for example, appointed as its security minister an official with a 10-year ban on holding public office by issuing him with a presidential pardon. After the Supreme Court ruled the move unlawful, the government hit back by accusing it of attempting to turn Poland into a “judiciocracy.”

The government will likely simply ignore the ruling — as it has other rulings by the Constitutional Tribunal with which it disagrees — and push ahead with reforms to bring the judiciary under more direct government control.

Trump’s ambiguity on Russia — a country PiS considers its greatest threat — could still sour the relationship.

The U.S. has a far more robust institutional framework, stronger governance norms, and deeper respect for its constitution. But Trump’s presidency will test these institutions like none before, as events during his short time in office have already shown.

Trump and PiS also share a deep distrust of the media, regularly accusing liberal outlets of false and manipulative reporting. Trump has dubbed the country’s journalistic institutions “enemies of the people.” And to Poland’s de facto leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, mainstream outlets are “against the very notion of the nation.” Just as the Trump administration has sought to limit access for outlets it views as hostile and favored sympathetic ones, so PiS has squeezed liberal media by not only reducing access but, more importantly, diverting advertising spending from Poland’s many large state-run firms toward publications that hew the party line.

Trump’s ambiguity on Russia — a country PiS considers its greatest threat — could still sour the relationship. But the heavy symbolism of this week’s meeting will reinforce the fact that Trump and the ruling Polish party have, on most substantive issues, very much in common.

Daniel Tilles is a professor of history at the Pedagogical University of Krakow.