Why the G20 violence is good for Merkel

BERLIN — Germans watched in shock and horror at the end of last week as violent protests broke out during the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany. Against the backdrop of burning barricades, looted shops, riot police and water cannons, the gathering of two dozen world leaders looked almost like a sideshow.

For Germans watching on television, the three nights of anarchy served as a dramatic reminder of the fragility of their country’s political and social stability. The political impact of the Hamburg riots has yet to fully unfold. But with national elections scheduled for September, it is already plentifully clear that the fallout will be severe.

Domestic security will now dominate the election campaign. Failures to protect the public and shortcomings in police capabilities have been regular subjects of controversy — most recently in the wake of a terror attack in Berlin and mass sexual assaults in Cologne.

The pre-election debate has so far revolved mostly around taxation, social benefits, public investment and same-sex marriage. But after the events in Hamburg, issues of domestic security have snapped back into focus. Very likely, they will be the ones that decide the election’s winners.

Perhaps ironically, given that it was Chancellor Angela Merkel who brought the summit to Hamburg, this dynamic will favor German conservatives. Citizens consistently rate Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), as most competent on questions of domestic security.

If Hamburg is a political boon for the conservatives, it is a huge liability for its left-of-center rivals.

Conservatives are unique among Germany’s main political parties in having consistently called for investment in the police force in their electoral programs. That will look particularly prescient after the events in Hamburg.

The CDU-CSU partnership — weakened by differences over the handling of the refugee crisis — is likely to find common cause over the issue. Merkel’s CDU may shy from explicitly campaigning on the riots, but the CSU will have no such reservations. Indeed, it will stress the fact that the last major summit held in Germany — the G7 in 2015 — took place in Bavaria without any disruption.

If Hamburg is a political boon for the conservatives, it is a huge liability for its left-of-center rivals. The city, a state of its own, is governed by the Social Democrats (SPD), together with the Greens as a junior coalition partner.

Under German federalism, decisions regarding the police force — including its deployment in protecting a major summit — rest within the competence of individual states. Consequently, the political responsibility for the violence will land at the feet of Hamburg Mayor Olaf Scholz. Calls for his resignation are rising in volume, and his departure from public office would deprive the SPD of one of its most capable leaders.

Even worse for the SPD, Hamburg is — after Cologne and Berlin — the third security disaster that has taken place in the party’s territory. At a time of heightened domestic security concerns, a triple failure to protect the public is not a good look for a party bidding to lead the national government.

Citizens consistently rate Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) as most competent on questions of domestic security | Patrik Stollarz/AFP via Getty Images

Casting further doubt on the already slim prospects of a left-of-center coalition unseating Merkel, the SPD’s preferred coalition partners — the Greens and the Left party — will also face backlash from the violence. In their initial responses, both parties appeared reluctant to condemn violent protesters, while putting responsibility for the escalation squarely on the police. This is likely to alienate the many moderates, pragmatists and realists among their potential supporters, and to accelerate the political marginalization of both parties.

The fallout from the G20 riots will not end with the election. A number of broader questions will have to be addressed in the longer run. One of these, hotly debated in Germany even prior to the summit, relates to whether such high-level gatherings should be held at all. While advocates highlight their value for diplomacy and democracy, critics point to the burden imposed on the communities that host them.

Another issue to be tackled is the fact that the militant protesters in Hamburg, although small in number, were able to count on the sympathies of many more regular citizens who were onlookers. This raises serious concerns about the inroads that radical politics — left and right — are making into the mainstream.

Finally, there is a European question. It became clear after the riots that some groups of protesters involved in the violence traveled to Hamburg from other EU countries. What is less clear is what is being done at the European level — in terms of police cooperation — to prevent this from happening again.

The German campaign season is just starting to heat up. Candidates for national office better be prepared with answers to these questions — and solutions for keeping the public safe in what seems to be an era of increasing volatility.

Joerg Forbrig is senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin.