In your article âBritish business to lobby Brussels on Brexit transition deal,â you claim that the EUâs chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier âinsistsâ that unless âseparation issues are resolvedâ there can be no discussion on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom.
We see it differently.
It is understandable that there is confusion: Brexit is an uncharted and politically sensitive process. And while the British government has produced position papers on key issues, these are tactical responses to an agenda set by the European Commission. The Brits have not thus far expressed a strategic plan or coherent vision for the country’s future.
In the absence of a British position or strategy in advance of talks, the Commission sensibly took the lead and proposed a two-phase approach â seeking progress on key issues regarding separation, such as citizens’ rights and the U.K.âs financial obligations to the EU, in phase 1, before opening up discussion on transition arrangements and the outlines of a future relationship in phase 2.
There are three key points to be borne in mind on the ongoing negotiations.
First, they are principally about departure. Yes, transition arrangements may be covered, and the future trade and political relationship could be sketched out. But the future relationship will be negotiated in detail later and under different EU laws and possibly fresh negotiators.
Secondly â and contrary to many reports â phases 1 and 2 can run concurrently. The key test will be in October when the EU27 will judge if sufficient progress has been made on phase 1 issues before moving to phase 2.
In his remarks to the House of Lords committee on July 11, Barnier explicitly reiterated this point.
He accepted that phase 1 details will not be settled before phase 2 starts, and that the key is to agree on principles and to build trust. Barnier affirmed: âI am in favor of parallel negotiations, but parallels do not start at the same point.â If the U.K. demonstrates sufficient progress â not necessarily a final agreement â then discussion on the future relationship can begin.
The third essential element of the negotiations is a recognition of power realities. Every step has been driven and shaped by the EU27, who also have a clear strategic intent and excellent administrative resources. The British have an excellent civil service, but their leaders do not appear to have a clear end goal.
Thatâs why the U.K. is the weaker player at the table. The fundamentals of power will remain, even when the dreams of departure have faded.
Nick Crosby
Senior director and head of the Grayling Brexit Unit
Brussels, Belgium