MADRID/ZARAGOZA, Spain — At first glance, the Catalan independence campaign’s appeal is obvious. Its simple slogans — “We want to vote” and “The right to decide” — tap into a basic desire for self-determination. Madrid’s legalistic response has only boosted this image of thwarted democracy by contrast.
But to what extent is the ongoing debate in Catalonia related to a truly democratic demand — or, rather, a nationalist claim posing as one?
The campaign’s emotional message tends to obscure what else is at stake: the importance of abiding by the constitution in a decentralized democracy and preserving the delicate balance of Catalonia’s pluralist society.
It’s worth taking a look at one of the independence campaign’s key claims: that a majority of Catalan people are clamoring for a referendum and consider a Yes/No vote as the only solution to the issue.
Secessionists typically rely on two pieces of data to back up their argument.
First, they point to the impressive mobilization of independence supporters in the streets over the past six years, particularly on the Catalan national holiday on September 11. This year, some estimated 500,000 people took to the streets in Barcelona — approximately one in every 14 Catalan citizens.
The data support the idea that a significant percentage of Catalans that approves of holding a referendum doesn’t directly support the idea of Catalonia becoming an independent country.
It’s an impressive turnout. But it is essential to bear in mind that in all recent elections held in Catalonia — and there have been several since 2012 — parties opposing secession received similar levels of support to those in favor. They are simply less visible on the streets.
It would be dangerous for a liberal democracy to allow highly mobilized actors with the capacity to organize large-scale demonstrations to impose their agenda on the larger society that may not agree.
The second piece of evidence used by pro-independence supporters is the claim that 70-80 percent of Catalans supported a referendum in every survey conducted on the issue since 2012.
This is indeed true. When asked a binary question, Catalans have overwhelmingly responded in the affirmative. But this too cannot be taken as clear proof that there is widespread support for the idea that a vote for independence is the best way to handle the conflict.
What does the data really tell us? It confirms something we already know: People want a say in their future and, accordingly, tend to see referendums as a good thing.
Support for referendums and popular initiatives on a wide variety of issues is growing across the Continent. Increasingly, citizens expect to play a greater role in government and are less likely to choose to defer to authority, studies show.
A referendum could be particularly dangerous in a divided region like Catalonia | Quique Garcia/AFP via Getty Images
When European Union residents in several countries were asked if they would support a referendum on membership in the bloc, more than 50 percent of respondents said “yes,” a recent Pew Research Center survey found. This was also true in countries like Germany, where there is little appetite for actually leaving the EU.
In Spain — where the issue is not even on the cards — 65 percent of respondents said they wanted a referendum on EU membership. Only 13 percent said they supported actually leaving the bloc.
The result strongly indicates that voters can support a referendum without necessarily showing much interest in the issue at hand.
The same applies in the Catalan case.
For years, the Spanish sociology research center CIS has asked Catalans and other Spaniards about the territorial organization of regions in Spain. The question was not a binary “yes” or “no” but it explicitly included the possibility of regions becoming independent countries.
Among Catalans, the percentage of those ticking the independence option increased slowly between 2006 and 2011 from 15 percent to 30 percent. It surged to its highest level in 2013, after the Popular Party came to power, reaching 40.6 percent. It has slowly decreased since and now stands between 30- 35 percent.
The data support the idea that a significant percentage of Catalans that approves of holding a referendum doesn’t directly support the idea of Catalonia becoming an independent country.
Furthermore, a large number of Catalans who say they want to vote are “weak supporters” of a referendum as a solution — especially if it is not sanctioned by Madrid.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has not sanctioned the referendum | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
According to various polls conducted over the past three years, at least one-third of the 70-80 percent of Catalans who support a referendum would only favor holding this referendum if it were previously negotiated with the central government.
In November 2014, when the Catalan government held a nonbinding pseudo-referendum that was declared illegal by the Constitutional Court, only around 37 percent of eligible voters went to the polls, even though there were no restrictions to take part.
Similarly, recent polling shows that only 34 percent of Catalans think the upcoming unilateral referendum on October 1 meets the necessary guarantees to be declared legal and valid. This percentage is lower than the proportion of Catalans — 48 percent — who indicated in a survey conducted by the Catalan sociology research center CEO in June that they wanted a referendum even if Madrid objected to it.
Referendums are not suited to divided societies. Places like Belgium and Northern Ireland, for example, hardly ever resort to them.
What this all boils down to is that Catalans — like citizens of other post-industrial countries — want to be consulted on their future. What it does not mean is that a referendum on secession from Spain is the only response to this desire for self-determination, as nationalists claim.
Indeed, an independence referendum is particularly dangerous in a region like Catalonia.
Referendums are not suited to divided societies. Places like Belgium and Northern Ireland, for example — where cleavages are based on entrenched ethnic, linguistic or religious divisions — hardly ever resort to them. And, when they do, the experience has been traumatic, both exposing and deepening sectarian hostility.
Divided societies need powersharing strategies to defuse conflicts. Given the strong correlation between language and political preferences on the issue of Catalan independence, a referendum will become a divisive zero-sum mechanism, in which a small — and probably unstable — majority imposes its preferences in a manner not easily reversible.
The outcome will be undesirable from a democratic standpoint, for both sides of the debate.
Pau Marí-Klose is associate professor of sociology at the University of Zaragoza. Ignacio Molina is senior analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid.