WARSAW — In his opinion article “Don’t put US bases in Poland,” General Ben Hodges argues against establishing a permanent U.S. military presence in Poland. But in claiming the move is a bad idea because it would “feed Russian fears,” he glosses over the fact that Moscow — as a number of politicians, diplomats and military officials will readily admit in private conversations — has nothing to fear. It is Russia’s smaller neighbors that are afraid.
Russia is aggressive for one reason and one reason only: It believes that by bullying the West it can one day win back its former spheres of influence. The only country Russia does not dare to bully is the U.S.
And that is exactly why Poland wants a U.S. base, rather than NATO base, on its territory — although obviously doing so behind NATO’s back isn’t a good idea. But this happened for a reason. As Hodges writes, building a permanent U.S. military base in Poland would “strain the cohesion” of the alliance. In other words, some European NATO allies seem to prefer appeasing Russia rather than standing up to it.
To be sure, the rotational deployment of NATO forces on the alliance’s eastern flank did strengthen Poland and the Baltic nations’ defenses. But these forces are no match for the Russian military. The reason to change the deployment from a rotational to permanent basis is to lower the risk of confrontation to zero. Poland is aware of the difficulties and costs involved, but it is ready to spend up to $2 billion to make it possible.
A permanent presence in Poland would also allow the U.S. to defend its economic interests.
There’s an obvious upside for Poland. But, more importantly, such a base would also serve U.S. interests.
The U.S. has already come to Europe’s rescue twice. Both times, the price was measured not just in money but in American blood spilled on European battlefields. Deploying an armored brigade combat team might seem costly, but it is a rather cheap insurance policy against having to come to Europe’s rescue once again.
A permanent presence in Poland would also allow the U.S. to defend its economic interests. Poland, as well as other countries in the region, have become — against Russia’s will — a market for U.S. goods. The U.S. would also be in a better position to counter the threat of anti-American, anti-European, anti-business and anti-Semitic movements in the region that are supported by Russia.
In the long run, if the U.S. wants to win in the grand game with China, it will eventually have to enlist Russia as a partner. That will only work if Russia can become a predictable ally that does not interfere in elections or militarily threaten other members of the community of democracies. Staking out a presence in Poland is an important first step.
Witold Jurasz
Center of Strategic Analysis, chairman
Warsaw, Poland