BERLIN — Germany’s centrists are stepping out of their comfort zones.
For years, the ruling Christian Democrats and their coalition partners, the Social Democrats, have championed nearly indistinguishable policies: the staid middle-of-the-road course embodied by Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Faced with the rise of a vocal populist right and crucial regional elections later this year, the ruling parties in Berlin have been wrestling with a choice: To ramp up their defense of the center ground, or take the fight to their ideological challengers on issues like immigration and globalization.
Germany’s ruling parties appear to have made their choice: They are expelling the ghosts of leaders past and moving into new territory — away from each other.
The moves — which are happening slowly but steadily — come with serious risks. Efforts by the members of the governing coalition to highlight their differences ahead of May’s European Parliament election could destabilize Germany and, with it, the world.
Both parties have the same goal in mind: to offer voters a more differentiated choice in the center and curb gains for parties on the fringes.
The growing gulf within the government — on issues such as arms exports and welfare sanctions — raises a key question: How long can the already tired coalition survive? It could also have negative repercussions for Berlin’s ability to act in Europe and beyond.
As the rest of the world spins out of control — with an erratic president in the U.S., a nuclear arms deal on the brink of collapse, multiplying trade wars and rising political instability — Germany will have to up its game to prevent the international order from falling down.
And yet, there’s good reason for the two parties to clearly stake out new ideological ground. Preserving the governing coalition can’t come at the expense of the leaving unchecked the radicalization of German politics, in particular the rise of the far right. Doing so would pose a far greater danger to Germany in the long run.
In redrawing their ideological lines, both parties have the same goal in mind: to offer voters a more differentiated choice in the center and curb gains for parties on the fringes of the political spectrum.
SPD leader Andrea Nahles and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Bundestag | Clemens Bilan/EFE via EPA
On the left side of the spectrum, the Social Democrats have been losing voters to the radical left and right as well as the rapidly growing Green Party, which has seen a dramatic rise in the polls and has even overtaken the SPD in some regions.
The party is wrestling with the legacy of its most recent political heavyweight: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Social Democratic predecessor, Gerhard Schröder.
For many traditional blue-collar voters, the pro-market reforms Schröder implemented some 14 years ago marked the beginning of the end. They blame the former chancellor for marginalizing workers and selling out on values of equality and justice. Some also see his policies as responsible for the rise of Germany’s radical left.
Confronted with this criticism and a series of historic defeats in the polls, the Social Democrats have formally broken with what they consider a misguided, decade-long flirtation with economic liberalism.
Under the leadership of Andrea Nahles, the party has made a significant shift to the left on economic issues, promising an expansion of the welfare state, raising the minimum wage by a third, increasing employee’s rights to work at home and suggesting a higher basic pension for poorer retirees. Most importantly, the party also wants to replace the much hated “Hartz IV” welfare plan with a more generous citizens’ pension known as Bürgergeld.
For Merkel’s Christian Democrats, the stakes are even higher. The party’s main threat is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is predicted to score significant gains in May’s European Parliament election as well as in regional elections in four German states.
The best way to stop the populists might not be to strengthen the center, but rather to ditch it altogether.
In large parts of eastern Germany, the AfD could even end up winning the largest proportion of votes, an unparalleled development since the end of World War II.
Countering the far right has required the Christian Democrats to reexamine the controversial refugee and asylum policies that became a hallmark of Merkel’s chancellorship in 2015.
Earlier this month, the CDU’s new party leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, stepped out of Merkel’s shadow by opening the party headquarters for a series of debates on “migration, integration, and security.” Among its carefully selected participants, one person was conspicuously missing: the chancellor herself.
CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer at the party congress in December 2018 | Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images
This was hardly a coincidence. The ideas discussed marked to a significant break with Merkel’s decisions at the height of the crisis. Party leaders called for the closing of the German border as a mechanism of last resort if another influx of migrants materializes. They pressed for swifter deportations of criminal immigrants and demanded a stronger focus on integrating migrants who have been accepted to stay in the country.
“We have to do everything we can to prevent a repeat of 2015 and we have to signal that we learned our lessons,” Kramp-Karrenbauer told the conference.
There’s early evidence that the centrist parties’ efforts are already paying off. The AfD has lost ground in recent polls, and both coalition members are regaining some momentum.
If this soul-searching yields results, it will illustrate a phenomenon other countries may want to pay attention to: The best way to stop the populists might not be to strengthen the center, but rather to ditch it altogether.
Michael Bröning is head of the International Policy Department of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, a think tank affiliated with the Social Democratic Party of Germany.