MOSCOW — Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s landslide victory in last week’s presidential election in Ukraine has been interpreted by some as a big win for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The comedian is a Russian speaker and lived and worked in Moscow for six years. He’s also inexpert as a statesman — his only experience in politics is playing a fictional president in the Netflix comedy series “Servant of the People.”
The reality, however, is more complicated. Zelenskiy might be green when it comes to governing, but he’s a veteran when it comes to communication, as evidenced by his drubbing of outgoing Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. And his knowledge of Russian — and Russians — cuts both ways.
Unlike Poroshenko, who embraced Ukrainian nationalism and spoke only in Ukrainian, Zelenskiy is capable of speaking to Russians in their own language, and of reaching them through his Instagram and other social media channels. For Putin, having a Russian-speaking president in democratic Ukraine is like eating a live octopus — exhilarating, yes, but also terrifying.
To be sure, there’s no doubt Zelenskiy is more friendly to Moscow than Poroshenko — as his opponent repeatedly stressed in the run-up to the election. One campaign poster showed a picture of Poroshenko staring down Putin. The subtext was unsubtle: a vote for Zelenskiy is a vote for Ukraine’s archnemesis.
Zelenskiy’s landslide victory in a free election has puzzled Russians who are used to elections being decided in advance
In the aftermath of the election, some of Poroshenko’s more ardent supporters have tried to dismiss the 73 percent of Ukrainians who voted for Zelenskiy as “Little Russians.” The country, they bemoan, has lost its way and is turning back toward Moscow.
Putin, it seems, has a different take. The Russian president has not called the Russian-speaking comedian to congratulate him on his victory. There has been near silence from the Kremlin except a terse statement “recognizing” the election, while criticizing Ukraine for not allowing the 3.5 million Ukrainians living in Russia to vote.
Sure, Putin most likely prefers Zelenskiy to Poroshenko, who was more interested in going mano o mano with Putin than the nitty-gritty of governance. The comedian has promised to lift the ban on Russian artists and Russian social networks, and will most likely encourage a cultural thaw between the two countries. Direct flights might even be reinstated at some point.
Zelenskiy’s overwhelming victory was a clear sign that Ukrainians, despite their anger over the war, would rather live in peace with Russia than in endless confrontation. But the Russian president has an elephant’s memory. It’s unlikely he’s forgotten that the oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky — Zelenskiy’s most prominent backer — used to refer to him as a “schizophrenic dwarf” during the heat of the war in the east.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s media savvy and natural connection with the Russian people makes him dangerous to Putin | Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images
Zelenskiy’s presidential alter ego in his television show has also been dismissive of Putin, even refusing to take his call during one memorable scene, and openly talks about his hope for regime change in Russia. “It was because of the negative comments about Putin that his television show ‘Servant of the People’ wasn’t broadcast in Russia,” confirmed an official at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs during an informal discussion recently.
Zelenskiy’s victory puts Putin in a special bind. He can’t embrace a politician who has openly called for his dismissal on his television show. Yet he’s also aware that the comedian presents a unique opportunity to reset relations with Russia after the animosity of the last five years. So he’s let Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev do the work of congratulating the president-elect and expressing hopes for better relations. Meanwhile, Putin is doing what he does best: acting tough and pushing his opponent into a corner.
A video of Zelenskiy going down on his knees during a debate with Poroshenko to beg for forgiveness of those who lost relatives in the conflict in eastern Ukraine has gone viral on Russian television — an effort to portray the comedian as weak and inexperienced. Meanwhile, Putin turned up the heat last week by signing a decree granting Russian passports to Ukrainians in the country’s separatist regions. The move was widely criticized. Kurt Volker, the United States’ special representative to Ukraine, called the decision “highly provocative” and “straight from Russia’s occupation playbook.”
The real danger for Putin is what happens next. Zelenskiy fired the first salvo on election night by calling out to all post-Soviet states with the cheer: “Look at us – everything is possible.” His landslide victory in a free election has puzzled Russians who are used to elections being decided in advance. It makes them wonder whether Putin could also be so easily swept aside in a free election. The theater of democracy in Ukraine has already been infectious: Some politicians have called for debates in football stadiums for Russian elections.
Zelenskiy’s media savvy and natural connection with the Russian people makes him dangerous to Putin. The last thing the Russian president wants is more talk of democratic revolution. Expect the Kremlin to keep playing tough and dirty until Putin figures out whether it’s better to stun the octopus or risk taking a bite while it’s alive and kicking.
Vijai Maheshwari is a writer and entrepreneur based in Moscow. He tweets at @Vijaimaheshwari.