It’s show time for superstar Ukrainian comic-turned-President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Sunday’s parliamentary election handed the political novice an overwhelming popular mandate to push through the reforms he promised in the run-up to the presidential election in May, where he unseated the incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, in a landslide.
Ukrainians again showed up to support Zelenskiy’s bid to set the country on a new path. The vote gave his newly formed party, Servant of the People — named after the television comedy show that propelled him to fame — more than 250 out of 424 seats in the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada.
The strong mandate delivered by the electorate will put Zelenskiy in a strong position domestically as he negotiates abroad with both East and West, to follow through on electoral promises made to a frustrated, impatient electorate that voted for change.
But Zelenskiy will have to move quickly if he hopes to make good on his pledge to throw out the status quo and set Ukraine on a new path.
Zelenskiy’s new government will have to purge inefficiency and graft at every level to escape falling into this zero-sum political trap.
Polling has consistently shown that Ukrainians want three things: an end to the grueling war in Donbas, real anti-corruption reforms and improved living standards for average people.
The political newcomer has positioned himself as the antidote to a corrupt political class, who will finally listen to the people. In a national televised debate with Poroshenko ahead of the presidential election, he told the incumbent: “I’m not your opponent, I’m your sentence.”
Now, with the main levers of political power available to him, Zelenskiy must deliver — or risk forfeiting the biggest stage of his career.
The new president’s agenda and his ability to address voters’ concerns will depend on the talent available to serve in his government, starting with his Cabinet and his choice of prime minister.
Zelenskiy has hinted that he would like to see an experienced economist as premier — a wise move given his lack of experience and the fact that responsibility for the economy falls largely outside his constitutional purview.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gives a speech at his Servant of the People party’s election headquarters in Kiev on July 21, 2019 | Genya Savilova/AFP via Getty Images
In the Rada, the Servant of the People party will be led by Zelenskiy’s longtime ally and campaign chief Dmytro Razumkov, whose father was deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council in Ukraine’s early post-independence years, and who is a lawyer and political consultant in his own right. Other top party list figures are similarly well known from business, media, and the NGO sector.
But below the top few dozen spots, many previously unknown deputies have entered the political arena on Zelenskiy’s coattails. As one observer put it, “they are so new, even Google doesn’t know anything about them.”
A key question is whether these or other Zelenskiy allies will prove resilient enough to discard the tried-and-true tactics of Ukraine’s oligarchs and machine politicians, such as blackmail and buying votes. While a small number of defections from Servant of the People might have little impact on the president’s commanding majority, evidence of even a few allies playing by the old political rules could be enough to blacken Zelenskiy’s image as an outsider committed to real change.
Zelenskiy also faces an uphill battle in making good on his promise to reboot the country’s finances.
He has already secured promises of a new International Monetary Fund aid program, helped along by his widely respected ally, former Finance Minister Oleksandr Danilyuk. And his new Rada members are certain to quickly rack up miles visiting their North American and European counterparts, who will be crucial to continuing Western support for Ukraine’s reform agenda and security in the face of continuing Russian pressure.
But relations with the IMF have proved troublesome for previous Ukrainian governments, which found themselves caught between the international community’s demands for market liberalization and Ukrainian voters’ expectations of more generous social benefits and lower utility costs.
At this stage, divining whether the untested Zelenskiy and his new party will deliver is more a matter of hope than hard evidence.
Zelenskiy’s new government will have to purge inefficiency and graft at every level to escape falling into this zero-sum political trap.
Perhaps the most elusive objective of Zelenskiy’s presidency is his grand campaign promise to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring the Donbas conflict to an end — a top priority for Ukrainian voters.
The Russian reaction to Zelenskiy’s landslide political victory suggests this will be no easy task: The Kremlin has said it will issue passports to Donbas residents, including those living on Ukrainian-held territory, and has already broken its promises around a planned prisoner exchange.
As he reaches out to the West and to Moscow, Zelenskiy will surely suffer attacks from the opposition at home, especially the Russia-friendly Opposition Platform and former President Poroshenko’s nationalist-leaning European Solidarity.
Yet as long as the president and his parliamentary allies work hard and deal honestly with the Ukrainian people, they seem set to dominate the country’s political center.
At this stage, divining whether the untested Zelenskiy and his new party will deliver is more a matter of hope than hard evidence. But after so many disappointments, Ukrainian voters can be forgiven for their impatience — and their willingness to believe.
Matthew Rojansky is director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C.