The Kurds have been abandoned, again.
Theirs is a long history of Western betrayal, dating back to colonial times. That the West would once again turn its back, after enlisting Kurdish help in Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State, has been in the cards for years. Witness the West’s unease with the ill-fated 2017 independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan or its silence about Turkey’s 2018 Olive Branch military operation on Afrin in Syria.
But U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision this week to provide a de facto green light for yet another Turkish offensive into Kurdish-held territory in Northern Syria is not just another instance in a long, unfortunate pattern in Western-Kurdish relations. It’s the turning of a new page in the history of the Middle East.
This is what the end of the Pax Americana in the region looks like. As bloody and tenuous as that pax may have been, its dissolution is disorienting for many in the region. For Europeans, in particular, it should serve as a shock that moves us to act.
The sudden power vacuum has Europe looking weak and unprepared. But the truth is that Europe has not led in the region for decades. As long as upheavals in the region unfolded under the shell of U.S. hegemony, Europeans operated in Uncle Sam’s shadow. Sometimes European countries complemented American action, at other times they sought to moderate it. But they never opposed it or charted an autonomous path. If our weakness has been exposed, it’s because we can no longer hide behind the U.S.’s skirts.
Given Trump’s position, there was probably little that could have been done to prevent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s offensive into northeastern Syria.
This moment was bound to come. Trump is an unusually erratic U.S. president, but on American engagement in the Middle East, he has been consistent for years. He has been looking for an opportunity to exit the Syrian quagmire since at least 2018. The Islamic State no longer represents a threat, at least not to the U.S., he argues. And if it remains a danger to the Kurds, the Middle East or Europe, well that’s not his problem.
Given Trump’s position, there was probably little that could have been done to prevent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s offensive into northeastern Syria. An embattled leader at home, with an ailing economy and plummeting domestic support, Erdoğan turned to the familiar nationalist-populist playbook. What better way to galvanize popular support than a good old war — especially one that strikes nationalist chords and holds the prospect of pushing back into Syria some of the 3.6 million refugees currently in Turkey?
Erdoğan gambled on Trump’s isolationism and on Europe’s cowardice. Tragically, his gamble appears to be paying off. And not just for Erdoğan. As the U.S. retreats from the Middle East, Russia is gloating on the sidelines. Vladimir Putin has been characteristically tactical. The Russian president has not supported Erdoğan’s onslaught on northeastern Syria, but neither has he been vocal against it. He is probably eyeing the opportunity to eventually mediate a truce between Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, once the Syrian Kurds are forced to turn to Damascus for support.
Europe has been accused of sitting silent as Turkey marches in. In truth, Europeans have spoken out. On behalf of the European Union, High Representative Federica Mogherini has called upon Turkey to cease its unilateral military action. But no one has any illusion that Europe’s words can make a difference.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
Erdoğan’s incursion — and Trump’s acquiescence — makes clear Europe needs to learn to stand on its own. Europeans do not have the U.S. luxury of being able to walk away. They are bound to Turkey and to the Middle East for historical, geographical, societal and economic reasons. The question we need to ask ourselves is how can we regain influence in the region, and in particular with Turkey.
The place to start is at home. Erdoğan must be made to understand that he can no longer blackmail us. We may not be able to prevent him from threatening to force millions of refugees across the Aegean, but we can establish a values-based system to manage migration and put in a place a refugee-sharing policy that will make us immune to his threats.
Then we need to work to rebuild the leverage the EU has lost over the last 15 years — and there are plenty of reasons to believe that this will be possible. Erdoğan’s power is in decline. At the last local election, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) was dealt a humiliating defeat, with the loss of the country’s economic powerhouses — most significantly Istanbul — to the opposition.
Meanwhile, the AKP is splintering in parliament, as former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and former Economy Minister Ali Babacan, with the backing of former President Abdullah Gül, are expected to launch their own parties by the end of the year.
Furthermore, the Turkish economy has not recovered from last year’s showdown between Erdoğan and Trump, which exacerbated years of structural mismanagement and government meddling with interest rates and resulted in the Turkish lira’s massive devaluation and skyrocketing inflation. Youth unemployment and the rising cost of living have been among the main reasons why the electorate is slowly but surely pivoting away from the AKP.
These calculations should strengthen the EU’s hand as the next European Commission takes office. The EU has strong cards to play as it presses for democratic reforms and better behavior from Ankara. These include negotiations to upgrade its customs union with Turkey and launching a dialogue on visa-liberalization.
Most of all, however, Europe must realize it must not blink. Turkey is not in a position to alienate its arguably most important partner. And the EU should be clear that it will not be blackmailed over the values that lie at its foundation.
Nathalie Tocci is director of Istituto Affari Internazionali and special adviser to European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini. Sinan Ekim is a junior fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali.