Turkey’s lose-lose referendum

No matter the outcome of Turkey’s referendum on constitutional reform Sunday, there is no good option left for the country’s people.

A victory for the Yes vote would institutionalize a de facto one-man rule under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The remaining, already severely weakened, voices of the opposition will be even more easily labeled as “traitors.”

If the No camp prevails, people’s hopes for change might be reignited. But a more insecure Erdoğan would likely crack down even more harshly on any form of criticism.

In Turkey, the pervading climate is one of fear and collective insanity. As concerns over the transparency of the vote grow, silent grievances are deepening.

The Yes campaign is backed by vast public resources, making it impossible to talk about a fair race. Indeed, in an environment where people are scared to express their opinion in surveys, few pollsters are confident enough to call it a close one.

“Naysayers” are treated like terrorists. Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have confirmed cases of intimidation against the No campaign across the country.

Just a week before the referendum, Erdoğan went as far as saying that No voters will be risking their afterlife.

In the early hours of April 1, the families of 21 jailed journalists in Istanbul were expecting to take their loved ones home. A court had set them free, given that the only evidence against them were tweets and social media posts in which they had shared critical columns. What the journalists did not know was that pro-government “colleagues” had slammed the court’s decision, prompting its reversal.

The 21 journalists are now political prisoners, along with at least 150 other jailed media workers. Nobody was surprised when the judges who dared to release them in the first place were also suspended.

And yet, despite this heavy repression, armies of internet trolls and heavily controlled media, the regime’s supporters still feel so insecure that they denounced the British ambassador to Ankara for supporting a new coup attempt based on a tweet about “tulips heralding spring.”

At the expense of his country’s essential ties with the West, Erdoğan has resorted to outdated “Crusaders versus the Crescent” rhetoric that plays well among his conservative-nationalist base. Just a week before the referendum, Erdoğan went as far as saying that No voters will be risking their afterlife.

Meanwhile, the Turkish diaspora in Europe is no less divided than society back home. In France, a group of Turks showed up to vote early in Ottoman-era clothing, proof that Erdoğan’s populist remarks resonate well among diaspora Turks, who have not felt themselves to be equals in Europe for decades.

Erdoğan has exported his polarizing populist narrative abroad, pointing the figure at his go-to enemy, the Gülenist movement, and accusing European democratic leaders of “Nazi” behavior to shore up support.

At the end of March, a bloody riot took place between Erdoğan supporters and his critics in the heart of Brussels. In Frankfurt, opposition observers detected voting fraud by Erdoğan backers, adding to growing concerns of rigging in the referendum. And Turkey’s imams throughout Europe have turned into public relations agents for the Yes vote — or spies, informing on Erdoğan critics, mainly over Gülenist movement links.

Erdoğan supporters abroad, ironically enough, do not mind favoring a clearly oppressive president, even as they enjoy the freedoms, rule of law and benefits of the welfare state in their host countries.

The right to protest — which scores of Erdoğan supporters did in Rotterdam when a Turkish minister was barred from entering the country — is a right that is impossible to exercise in Turkey today. The violent dispersal of Erdoğan supporters by the Dutch police, meanwhile, provided the Turkish government a much-needed image of victimization at home.

Protests at the Dutch consulate after Turkish FM is blocked from landing In The Netherlands. The Turkish diaspora in Europe is as divided than society back home | Chris McGrath/Getty Images

As an Erdoğan adviser has stated publicly, the push for an executive presidency will not be shelved if the referendum fails. If that happens, Erdoğan might call for snap elections, as he did in 2015, when his party could not secure a single-party government in parliament.

Why would an already powerful president who is glorified by half of the nation — and hated by the rest — be so publicly hellbent on attaining more power? Simply put, he fears being made accountable.

In profound sadness, I witness my home country, once full of so much potential, the poster child of its region, destroy itself to satisfy one man’s worries and desires.

Members of Turkey’s intelligentsia and even the opposition have emboldened Erdoğan’s arbitrary rule by supporting his brutal purge.

If voters choose “No,” it will be too little too late to save Turkey from a one-man rule. A victory for “Yes” will be the last nail in the coffin of what is left of Turkey’s already smashed democracy.

Sevgi Akarçeşme is a Turkish journalist in exile in Europe.